Casein Price Trend and Forecast

Casein Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Casein in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Casein Price Trend for the Q4 of 2024

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Asia

Casein prices in Asia experienced a period of moderate volatility during Q4 2024. Increased milk production in China, which was largely directed towards milk powders, exerted downward pressure on casein prices. However, the strong regional demand for high-protein foods, especially in developing economies, counteracted some of this pressure. Dairy processors navigated the quarter by adjusting their product mixes, balancing cheese and whey production for export markets with the local demand for casein-containing products.
 

Casein Price Chart

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Ultimately, casein prices in Asia saw minor fluctuations, heavily influenced by the interplay between domestic production dynamics in China and broader international trade flows. Import policies continued to play a critical role in determining casein availability and price levels in key Asian markets throughout the quarter.

Europe

The European casein market maintained relative stability throughout Q4 2024, although regional nuances existed. Despite an overall increase in milk production across the EU, particularly in major producing countries like Germany, Denmark, Poland, France, Spain, and Italy, the potential impact of regulatory uncertainties, such as the nitrates derogation in Ireland, loomed. While this did not have an immediate effect in Q4, it reflected the cautious sentiments.

As processors increasingly favored cheese and whey production over milk powders due to changing global demand, the casein supply became somewhat constrained, which put a modest upward pressure on prices. Intense competition among numerous dairy brands further complicated pricing strategies, necessitating careful market observation by industry stakeholders. However, some markets like New Zealand also saw stagnation with buoyant downstream demands. The monthly average FOB prices in New Zealand went from about 8734 USD/MT to 8664 USD/MT in December of 2024.

North America

North America's casein market witnessed a steady upward price trend in Q4 2024. Consumer appetite for high-protein diets remained strong, bolstering demand for casein as a key ingredient in protein-enriched products. The dairy industry responded proactively, innovating with new high-protein milk, yogurt, and cheese snacks, which met with considerable consumer acceptance. Since high-protein foods commanded a premium, casein prices were supported by this market dynamic.

The transition of high-protein diets from niche segments to mainstream health consciousness further solidified casein's demand and price resilience. The protein craze of 2024, far from being a fad, firmly established itself as a nutritional priority, directly impacting the casein market in North America.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current supply and demand dynamics in the casein industry not much change is anticipated in the pricing outlook going forward as well.
 

Casein Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

The prices of casein showed an oscillating trajectory trend globally in the third quarter of 2024. The prices showed regional variations influenced by multiple attributes within the dairy sector. The primary feedstock for casein manufacturing, milk, played an important role in these fluctuations. In New Zealand, a leading producer, the prices showed an inclining trajectory, which went from around 8608 USD/MT (FOB) in July to around 8676 USD/MT in September.

The incline represented positive market sentiments due to relatively high demand. In Q3 2024, New Zealand's casein prices increased despite a rise in milk production. This price trend occurred due to relatively limited global milk supply from other key exporting regions, robust demand for dairy products, particularly from markets like China and rising global dairy prices.

Apart from this, supply was disrupted due to bad weather conditions. The monsoon season was marked by heavy rains in Asian countries, and hurricanes caused significant disruptions in North America. These events further hampered milk supply, affecting the casein market in the short term.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices are expected to rise in the coming months, especially in the New Zealand casein market. Upcoming festive and holiday season will further push the consumer demands for dairy products.
 

Casein Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Throughout the second quarter of the year 2024, the casein market experienced considerable variations influenced by multiple attributes within the dairy industry. The primary raw material for casein production, milk, played a pivotal role in these fluctuations. Global dynamics, such as freight disruptions and challenges in international markets, contributed to the fluctuations observed. Global milk demand continued to stabilize from April to June, contributing to the normalization of raw material costs.

This borderline stagnancy was attributed to various factors, including a slight dip in downstream demands after the peak winter season was over. However, as the quarter progressed, pressure increased from the supply side. Suppliers had increased inventories in anticipation of further demand. However, the demands took a downturn; this led to a slight degradation of prices in the latter half of the quarter. In the New Zealand casein markets, the monthly average prices (FOB) were seen going from about 8592 USD/MT in April’24 to around 8457 USD/MT in June’24. Overall, dull market sentiments were witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, no immediate correction in Casein prices can be seen in the near future; a rise in demand is likely to uplift the casein markets.
 

Casein Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Stay updated with the latest Casein prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Casein price trends were observed to be fluctuating throughout the said period of Q1’24. The casein market was subjected to the oscillations in the dairy industry in the international markets as milk is the primary feedstock material to produce casein.

Influenced by the freight disturbances and the challenges in the international markets, the casein prices surged from January to February since the demands were also higher during the peak winter months. However, as the pressure started rising from the supply side, suppliers started flooding the inventories, expecting even higher demands.

The latter half of the said quarter witnessed markets normalizing a little by cutting down the prices. Still, the overall market sentiments were largely positive. In the New Zealand market, the casein prices went from about 8590 USD/MT (FOB) in January to about 8675 USD/MT in March’24. Similarly, in the US market, the average monthly prices for Casein went from about 8267 USD/MT in January’24 to around 8322 USD/MT in March.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current supply and demand dynamics the Casein price trends are likely to continue fluctuating in the coming months as well.
 

Casein Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Casein prices were observed following a downward trajectory during the given span of H2’23. According to USDA (US Department of Agriculture), a significant growth in the rate of milk production per farm was noticed during this time. This directly translated into the rise of supply stocks for casein as well since casein is directly sourced from milk. Thus, the price trend took a downward journey throughout the entire period of Q3 and Q4 of 2023.

In the USA the monthly average prices of rennet casein went from about 9921 USD/MT in July’23 to around 7782 USD/MT in December’23. This showed an approximate 21% reduction in the monthly average prices. Similarly, with an estimated 22% fall the acid casein prices went from about 10403 USD/MT in July to around 8047 USD/MT in December. Overall, a tepid price trajectory was witnessed with dull market sentiments.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, as the new year arrives, the Casein prices are expected to rise again with the increase in downstream consumption.
 

Casein Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Casein prices fluctuated throughout the said period. As the casein protein is sourced from milk, the prices followed the milk price trend and the end user consumption. Casein prices almost remained constant in the first quarter in the USA market and plunged later in the second quarter. The average price of rennet casein in the US domestic market averaged around 13161 USD/MT in January’23 and closed the H1 with an average price of about 10086 USD/MT in June 2023, registering an overall decline of about 23%.

Meanwhile, prices had even more tribulations in the Asian market. The market had a slow start; however, some inclinations were seen. But consumption did not rise much compared to rising prices, eventually causing the price trend for Casein to decline. Rennet casein prices averaged about 2275 USD/MT in January in the Japanese domestic market, whereas in May, the average prices came down to about 2170 USD/MT. Overall, prices mostly swung low for Casein as the consumption and production both had taken a hit in recent years.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the price trend for Casein are expected to behave in a similar fluctuating manner given the current softening demand dynamics and altering consumption rates.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Casein. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.