- Global coconut markets declined in Q2’26 as improved supply availability and weaker buyer urgency pressured prices.
- Feedstock conditions improved, with Indonesian coconut-oil exports rising 22.8% year over year to 238,856 metric tons during January–April.
- Downstream demand from food, oleochemicals and biodiesel applications remained supportive but insufficient to offset higher supply.
In Q2’26, Coconut prices in Indonesia were ~USD 210.00/MT in April and ~USD 177.00/MT in June, showing a ~15.7% decrease. In India, prices declined from ~USD 2,404.55/MT in April to ~USD 1,634.00/MT in June. The Q2 decline was driven by improved regional availability, increased Indonesian shipments and weaker purchasing urgency. Philippine coconut-oil export volumes declined earlier in the year due to reduced nut availability and lower crushing activity, but additional Indonesian supply eased market pressure later. Raw coconut prices also weakened, indicating that the correction was linked to broader raw-material conditions rather than only processed oil markets. Philippine and Indonesian supply remained influenced by weather conditions, crop recovery and processing capacity. However, buyers avoided large inventory accumulation due to uncertain market direction. Biodiesel-related demand received attention after proposals to increase coconut methyl ester blending, but it did not create immediate enough demand to reverse the Q2 decline. New processing capacity in coconut-producing regions improved copra quality and supply efficiency, adding further availability to the market.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, coconut prices are expected to remain influenced by crop conditions, export flows and industrial demand, while weather risks may affect future supply expectations.