Corn Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Corn in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America and Middle East & Africa).

Corn Price Trend for the H2 of 2022

Asia

The price trends for corn recorded a fluctuating pattern in the said period. The prices went from 413.24 USD/MT (Spot FD) in July to 399.38 USD/MT (Spot FD) (approx.) in September 2022. The decline in prices was due to the fall of corn prices in the international market. The price decline was attributed to the availability of precious supplies from Ukraine. With the relaxation in port congestions and the timely arrival of shipments, the prices of corn fell. However, the prices rebounded in the second half of quarter four.

Supported by such factors as the continuous high cost of imported corn, the rising domestic transportation cost and the continuous recovery of downstream aquaculture demand, the corn market price continued to be high and relatively strong averaging 404.13 USD/MT (Spot FD China) (approx.) towards the end of December.

Europe

The European region witnessed the same oscillating corn prices as the Asian market. The cost of corn went from 369.19 USD/MT Spot FD in July to 356.83 USD/MT (Spot FD Europe) (approx.) in September 2022. The price decline was due to the ample inventories and reduced offtake forcing the manufacturers to reduce their market quotations to make room for the new production. With periods of frequent fluctuations, the price of corn finally settled around 318.63 USD/MT (Spot FD Europe) towards the end of December.

North America

The pricing pattern for corn fluctuated throughout the US domestic market. The corn crashed despite the drought-like conditions in the corn-producing belt. The decline was attributed to the weakened demand amid the looming speculations of a global recession. The tentative return of Black Sea shipments from Russia and Ukraine further reduced the panic pricing.

Latin America

Owing to the lowered demand and sufficient inventories, corn prices fell in the Brazilian market. The producers in Brazil were forced to sell corn for lower prices to quickly empty inventories ahead of a historically high crop for next year. Towards the end of the said period, the prices averaged around 271.67 USD/MT (Spot FD Brazil) (approx.).

Analyst Review

According to Procurement Resource, corn prices in the Chinese domestic market will remain afloat, witnessing periodic fluctuations. With the arrival of new products, the market inventories will remain in stock. In the international market, corn prices are expected to rise owing to the relaxed realistic market fundamentals.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the said quarter, the Chinese market continued to operate firmly despite a few fluctuations. The prices reached an all-time high in April, averaging 2971 RMB/MT. However, the prices stabilized towards the end of June, averaging 2792 RMB/MT.

This decreasing price trend for the crop was due to the opening of new trade subjects, and many traders focused their attention on newly opened wheat. Along with the US increasing its acreage under corn and Indonesia pursuing aggressive exports after the ban, the prices of corn plus other food grains dipped globally.

Europe

In line with the Asian market, corn prices constantly decreased in the European market. Per ton price of corn fell from 382 EUR in April 2022 to 337 EUR in June 2022.

North America

According to USDA, the prices of the crop are stabilizing due to the improved weather conditions aiding the key pollination stages required for excellent yields. With the US increasing the acreage under corn farming, around 64% of US output was labelled as superior quality, thereby driving the exports stocks further. The price of in the US domestic market went from 782.94 USD/bu in April to 672.32 USD/bu in June 2022.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Asian corn prices decreased during the month of March. They plummeted 13 USD/MT in a single day as of 15th March, registering the worst daily decline in CFR history, due to a decline in freight costs caused by worries of a Chinese economic downturn. On March 15, South Korean feed manufacturers secured four cargoes totaling 266,000 MT of grain via public auctions and private agreements. MFG purchased three corn cargoes for June-July delivery in a March 15th tender.

Europe

Euronext corn prices gained 15% quarter-on-quarter (January-March 2022) and 31% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q1 2022, reaching 279.9 EUR/MT. The price increase was ascribed mostly to the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine, as Ukraine is a prominent player in the global maize market, accounting for 14% of world maize exports.

Fears of protracted disruptions to Black Sea region shipments boosted the Euronext maize price to a record high on March 7th, 2022. Despite the high Euronext maize price, European  output was predicted to increase by 4% year on year to 69.8 million tonnes in 2021/22, the highest level since 2014/2015, owing to excellent yield potentials in France, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.

North America

Corn prices in the United States closed mostly higher. There was increased discussion of Ukraine's failure to cultivate a harvest this year. Typically, the plantation would begin in April. According to market speculation, Ukraine's growing area might be halved as a result of fuel and fertilizer shortages.

It is estimated that the United States will plant 92 million acres of maize in 2022, with a range of 89.7 million to 93.5 million acres. This compares to 93.4 million a year earlier and is similar to the USDA's February preliminary estimate. America is predicted to have enough corn to last the entire summer. If there would be any difficulties cultivating a crop in the United States this summer, fresh crop futures might move higher.

Latin America

Corn prices in many important Brazilian markets continued to tumble as the advance of the first-corn crop harvest and the decline in import costs weighed on pricing. The dollar's decline versus the real led to the decline in the cost of imports. Southern states of Brazil import corn, despite being one of the greatest exporters, since it is more cost effective than transporting maize from the Midwest part of the country, where the majority of the crop is cultivated. Between March 29 and April 2, the corn price obtained by growers in Brazil (Real/60 kg bag) was around 71.18 (Lucas do Rio Verde/Mato Grosso), whilst the CBOT corn price was 216.70 USD/MT.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In December 2021, China drastically reduced its imports from the US over concerns about rising prices in the latter. China then switched to Ukraine and Bulgaria for corn imports in the third quarter of 2021. In the final quarter, corn prices fell from the record high ones in March to match those of wheat as domestic production of corn was harvested. The prices in Shandong province had fallen 15% to 409 USD/MT by mid-October 2021.

Prices increased by 12.40 USD/MT to 223.71 USD/MT on the CBOT by the end of the final quarter of 2021. There has been an increase in demand for corn in the international market, which would support the crop's price.

The supply suffered in various states such as Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra due to poor weather conditions and production being less than estimated. The quality of the crop supplied was also not up to the mark, having a very high moisture content. For all these reasons, the price in the region has increased.

Europe

The price in the EU again began to rise in the final quarter of 2021, reaching 320 USD/MT as demand increased in China due to limited supply. As China began to shift away from US corn crops, Ukraine emerged as a major corn producer and exporter.

North America

In the US, corn prices dropped to 196 USD/MT in October 2021 as the new crop was harvested, therefore increasing the supplies, but then again soon picked up pace by the end of the year as prices rose to 216.52 USD/MT owing to the increasing demand in the international market.

Latin America

In Brazil, the price dropped during the final quarter of 2021 due to an increase in domestic supplies as well as fresh corn harvests in the US. The export of corn in Brazil has slowed down as farmers were willing to sell their corn produce at low prices. The prices dropped by 5.4% from the previous quarter to 202 USD/MT.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia 

The price in China reached the highest by the end of the first quarter of 2021, supported by production problems and stock drawdowns that limited supplies and drove up the price in the domestic market. In the first quarter, the price reached a record high of 440 USD/MT in February 2021 and came down to 377 USD/MT by August 2021.

Corn prices in India in the second quarter of 2021 dropped by 6.0% from the previous quarter to 210 USD/MT. Price fell by 9.45 USD/MT, to 210.23 USD/MT in August 2021, while the crops in the US and Brazil suffered due to harsh weather conditions, which eventually caused the price to rise again.

Europe

In Europe, the crops suffered due to storms and heavy rainfall in the summer of 2021. However, some countries, like France, witnessed high yields of corn after having received favourable moisture content.

In the first quarter of 2021, prices in the EU were mostly low, reaching a maximum price of 270 USD/MT. By the end of the second quarter, they began to rise and reached close to 340 USD/MT in June 2021. In the third quarter, they were close to 300–320 USD/MT and dropped to 270 USD/MT towards the end of September.

North America

In 2021, price in the US were surging high with a 46% increase from the previous year, which is likely to continue in 2022. Ethanol demand was rising and supplies were tight, which were the major factors in the rise in the crop’s prices. During April-May 2021, the prices were the highest.

They continued to stay high in the middle of growing prices in the fertiliser industry, with corn being a fertiliser-intensive crop. Rising demand in the ethanol industry was another major reason for the increase in its demand, as US-produced corn accounts for 40% of ethanol consumption.

In the second quarter, price in the US was 314.94 USD/MT, a 78.73 USD/MT rise from the previous quarter's price. The low supplies in Brazil, along with drought-hit zones in major maize producing states like Iowa, also kept the price high as demand continued to grow in China. Amid rising prices, the US emerged as a major exporter of the crop in the third quarter of 2021.

Latin America

By the third quarter of 2021, the prices were still on the rise in Brazil as CONAB, the national agricultural agency of the country, introduced production cuts, which led to an international increase in the price. The production in Brazil has been seriously affected by the drought conditions in major producing states and also due to the impact of frost in June.

The import costs had been lower as compared to the domestic market prices. Nevertheless, prices were still high in the light of limited supply. Despite being the world's second-largest corn producer, Brazil imported significant amounts of the crop in the first and second quarters. The imports from Paraguay and Argentina were mostly cheap as compared to those in the Midwest region of Brazil, where the majority of the corn is produced.

By the third quarter of 2021, the price for Brazilian maize were so high that buyers preferred to buy it from Argentina for exports in the international market. The domestic market also followed a similar trend as demand started to drop and prices were predicted to fall by the last quarter of 2021.The price in Brazil peaked in the first quarter at 305 USD/MT in March 2021 but then later dropped to 235 USD/MT by the third quarter in September 2021.

For the Year 2020

Asia 

The price in China rose from 295.8 USD/MT in Q1 to 409 USD/MT by Q4 2020, as imports hit record highs. In 2020, the US was China's main corn supplier. Despite the scarcity of fertile land in China, the country increased planting areas as the price soared. As the country recovered from the African Swine Fever pandemic, demand for poultry surged. Imported maize was far cheaper than locally grown corn, which contributed to the huge demand on the worldwide market.

Due to the lockdown limitations, all non-essential services were halted in India in 2020. Low demand lowered the price. In Telangana, price fell 20% to 197 USD/MT in the second quarter of 2020. Most markets were closed, and a second crop supply ensured low prices for most of 2020. India is a large producer of the crop and exports it to Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Maize was also cheaper because poultry producers used less of it as a feedstock.

Europe

In 2020, Ukraine was a major maize exporter to China, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Egypt. The average price in Ukraine in 2020 was in the range of 242-261 USD/MT. Ukraine’s exports to China in 2020 were 80% more than in the previous year. In 2020, the Ukrainian government lifted its moratorium on agricultural land sales, which boosted economic growth in the country.

North America

In July 2020, the price in the US increased to 133.26 USD/MT, which was 6 USD/MT more than the previous month. This price was the result of an increase in the demand. Production was therefore increased to keep up with the required demands, which eventually caused prices to come down later. The demand for maize was low in the previous months due to the low demand from poultry farmers in the wake of the coronavirus.

Latin America

Brazil's corn prices soared to 193.29 USD/MT by the end of the first quarter of 2020. Price in March 2020 was almost 11% higher than in February. Price fell by 6% in southern Brazil in early April 2020 due to imports and increased production of safrinha corn in Mato Grosso. Droughts in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul initially impacted the crops in 2020, decreasing total production levels. Safrinha corn couldn't be harvested until May or June, adding to the growing tensions among poultry farmers. Despite the pandemic, the Brazilian poultry sector was booming due to rising Chinese demand.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Corn. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.