Peanut Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Peanut Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The price trend of peanut oil recorded mixed trajectories in the fourth quarter of 2023. During the first half of Q4’23, the prices kept towards the lower side of the price curve owing to weak demand and ample supplies. The high inventories in the domestic markets of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka, coupled with the low demand from the seed mills and weak buying activity from the traders, stockiest, and exporters, led to a drastic decline in the peanut oil prices.

Peanut Oil Price Chart

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However, with the arrival of the festive season, the prices of peanuts and, thereby, peanut oil inclined in the second half of Q4’23. Moreover, the demand from the East Asian region drove the price trend of peanut oil in the Indian domestic market towards the end of December.

Europe

In alliance with its Asian counterpart, the price trend for peanut oil underwent oscillations throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. Initially, the prices kept low and increased towards the end of December, reflective of the rising prices in the Asian exporting nations.

North America

Initially, the prices kept low and inclined during the latter half of the fourth quarter, given the arrival of the festive season and increased downstream demands. In comparison with the historical figures, the US recorded low production yields this year as compared to the previous ones. Severe droughts across major peanut-producing regions of Alabama and Florida forecasted 24% and 26% yield decreases in the marketing year 2023/24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Peanut Oil are expected to incline in the coming months, given the low volume of carry-forward stock amid production shortages and high demands

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

The adverse effect of poor climatic conditions reduced the availability of peanuts in Asian countries while its demand grew significantly throughout the third quarter. Amid this consistent depletion of inventories, India was able to become the highest exporter of peanut oil, which in turn drove the peanut oil price trend in the northward direction. However, in the last month, the decline in peanut oil prices was steep due to the escalating cost of production, with had an adverse impact on the market dynamics.

Europe

The European countries mimicked the trajectory of the peanut oil price graph as was seen in Asia. The shortage in stocks and active purchasing by the consumer sector helped in the growth of the peanut oil price graph. Further, the inflation in the food products and bolstering prices of crude oil also supported the upward journey of peanut oil prices. But towards the end of the quarter, the trading activities of agricultural products became feeble resulting in the downfall of peanut oil price trend.

North America

North America was also not indifferent from the rest of the countries in terms of peanut oil price trend during the initial phase of the third quarter of 2023. The onset of festival season boosted the rate of procurement of peanut oil and, in turn, its prices. The imports from the majority of overseas nations also declined gradually during this time. However, towards the end, a significant decline in the demand for peanut oil and its export resulted in the southward movement of peanut oil price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Peanut Oil are estimated to face downwards as the demand for peanut oil in the upcoming quarters seems weak while the functioning of supply chains and production units is likely to return at its regular pace.

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

The prices of Peanut oil, along with other edible oils, oscillated in the first two quarters of 2023 in the Asia Pacific region due to the unseasonal rainfall and long stretch of monsoon. The dip in the prices was very significant in the second quarter as compared to the first.

However, lower production in Argentina favored the export rates from India, which was evident in the increase in the number of shipments. Along with Argentina, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand also increased their procurement rates of peanut oil, which supported the growth of its prices. In addition to this, domestic demand also played a huge role in keeping the market sentiments of peanut oil afloat amid a weak economy and production. The overall inflation in the food sector due to restricted supply from Ukraine and Russia was also an important cause of the incline in the prices of peanut oil.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Peanut Oil is expected to rise as the demand for Peanut oil around the globe is supported by high consumption rates of consumers while the production of raw materials is adversely affected by poor market conditions.

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

The price trend for peanut/groundnut oil kept firm throughout the second half of 2023. Despite the falling prices of other edible oils, the market for peanut oil kept strong, given the change in consumer consumption levels. However, the erratic supply of feedstocks heavily impacted peanut oil prices. The Indian peanut industry is undergoing a crisis owing to loss in acreage, untimely rain, crop reduction, and an increase in farmgate vulnerability.

Many farmers have shifted from growing groundnuts to cotton to minimize harvest losses. Given the drastic decrease in acreage in Gujarat, India, the high groundnut prices are unlikely to go down in the 2022-2023 kharif season. Production is estimated to dip below 3 million tonnes in the current season. Further, the huge spurt in global demands exerted pressure on the already constricted supply chains.

The mills are not able to procure groundnuts at affordable rates for crushing, causing the prices of its derived products to rise amid growing demands. The current market dynamics severely impacted the prices of peanut/groundnut oil, averaging around Rs 3000 per 15 kg tin in the Indian market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for peanut oil are expected to remain volatile in the coming months. Given the current vulnerabilities in market supply amid rising demand, groundnut oil is likely to incline.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Peanut Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.