Peanut Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Peanut Oil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Peanut Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the Q4 of 2024

Asia

In Q4 of 2024, peanut oil prices in Asia faced downward pressure primarily due to a bumper groundnut harvest in key producing regions, especially India. Gujarat saw a significant increase in groundnut production, which resulted in a large supply of peanuts. However, the demand for peanut oil remained weak both domestically and in export markets.
 

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Indian exporters faced stiff competition from African countries like Nigeria and Ghana, which offered peanuts and oil at more competitive prices. This led to a reduction in India’s export share, particularly in African markets. As a result, peanut oil prices in the region softened, and it was expected that the availability of new stock in the coming months would further push prices down.

Europe

In Europe, the price trend for peanut oil mirrored the challenges seen in Asia. Import prices for Indian peanut oil faced stiff competition from other regions, particularly from Africa, where lower prices were offered. The European market, which relies heavily on imports, found itself under pressure as the export prices from India were not competitive enough. Moreover, European consumers were less willing to pay premium prices due to the availability of cheaper alternatives like sunflower and palm oils. Consequently, European peanut oil prices experienced some downward movement, aligning with the global trends of weakening demand and oversupply.

North America

In North America, peanut oil prices remained relatively stable but faced slight declines toward the end of Q4. The oversupply of peanuts in India and other major producing countries contributed to the softness in global peanut oil prices, which in turn affected the North American market. While the U.S. continued to import peanut oil, competition from lower-priced oils in Asia and Africa dampened demand. This situation put pressure on the market, leading to some reduction in prices for peanut oil, especially with the growing supply from India and other regions.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the outlook for Peanut Oil prices is expected to remain weak due to continued oversupply from major producing countries like India and China. The increased competition from low-priced oils in Africa and other regions is likely to exert further downward pressure.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend For the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The prices of peanut oil witnessed oscillating trajectory throughout the Asian markets during the discussed quarter. Initially the prices inclined due to the strong buying interest in the market. But soon, this momentum fizzled out due to the drastic increase in the supply of raw materials which affected the overall pricing patterns. Favourable weather conditions in the key peanut producing areas led to increase in the cultivation areas which eventually led to bumper harvest in India during the 2024 agricultural season. Increased harvest coupled with slumping demands led to decline in the prices of peanut oil during the middle of the third quarter. However, the trajectory again started to incline steadily towards the final month of the quarter given the import duty hike decisions by the Indian government.

The government increased the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points to help protect farmers. However, these decisions readily affected the crude palm oil and sunflower oil prices; the effect seen on the peanut oil prices were comparatively less. Since, peanut oil is primarily produced indigenously the import duty didn’t affected its prices much. However, increase in the prices of other edible oils caused the consumers to shift to other alternatives hence, contributing to the rise in peanut oil prices towards the end of said period.

Europe

The peanut oil prices in Europe somewhat traced a similar trajectory as its Asian counterpart. The prices inclined for a major part of the quarter due to the sudden shift in the buying preferences of the European buyers. Initially, the buyers where cautious and were waiting for the prices to fall in Argentina. However, the Argentinian market kept stagnant given the reduced peanut supplies amidst harsh weather conditions. Hence, the European buyers were compelled to buy the product at increased prices. Nonetheless, the prices stabilized and fell towards the end of the said quarter as imports from other exporting markets made their way into the market providing relief for the players involved.

North America

The US domestic market trends were in line with the global peanut oil industry. The prices after an initial incline witnessed a declining trend. Several factors contributed to these price patterns given a promising peanut harvest in the US followed by weakening demand and dampening fundamentals of the global peanut oil markets.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Peanut Oil industry is likely to face a somewhat slow quarter in the coming months. The bumper supply coupled with softened demand will likely affect the pricing fundamentals. Furthermore, the prices may see a rise in the Indian domestic market given the new import duty structure leading to competition in the market.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

The early rise in the prices of edible oil, such as peanut oil in India, resulted in the bleak outlook of the market towards the end of the quarter. The initial price surge was influenced by the limited influx of sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine due to off-season production and loss of crops to high temperatures, shifting the focus of the consumers towards other commodities, such as peanut oil.
 

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Among the other commodities as well, soybean oil supply was disrupted by protests in Argentina, floods in Brazil and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. However, this surge in the prices of the commodity turned the confidence of the market sour in the later half when the consumers limited their procurement rates. The trading sector of peanut oil, however, anticipated that the management of inflation and increased overseas channels might stabilize the market in the upcoming months.

Europe

The rise in prices of peanut oil in Argentina, the primary supplier of the commodity to Europe, was well evident in the northward facing pricing trajectory of peanut oil in Europe as well. The supply chains were constricted by the limited export from Argentina as the nation itself grappled with the rising number of protests at ports and inclining freight charges. However, the expansion of the usage of peanut oil in the food sector amid a limited influx of other edible oils and rising restrictions on the usage of palm oil widened the supply-demand gap of the commodity.

North America

The North American market of peanut oil was majorly influenced by Brazil's outlook of the market throughout Q2 of 2024. The crop plantations in the region were affected by irregular rain patterns and uncertainties regarding produce quality. However, the influx of Indian peanut oil stabilized the supply chains a little but was still insufficient to cater to the domestic demand for the commodity. Additionally, the usage of edible oils in biofuel production further escalated the procurement rates of the commodity, leaving room for the traders to increase their pricing quotations.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Peanut Oil is estimated to face northwards in the upcoming quarters as the rising demand from the downstream food, beverages, and biofuel sector and depleting global production will support an uptrend.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

In the Asia Pacific region, particularly in India, significant improvement was witnessed by the traders of peanut oil during the first quarter of 2024. With a substantial increase in market activity, India benefitted from favorable weather conditions, innovative farming techniques, and government initiatives, driving the growth momentum of the peanut oil market.

The farmers also registered excellent crop harvests, supported by agricultural reforms and enhanced irrigation facilities. The government's focus on advanced farming practices and technology adoption further boosted farmer confidence, ensuring ample availability of peanuts and peanut oil in the market. Additionally, the introduction of new crop varieties enhanced yields and contributed to a downward trajectory in peanut oil prices across the region.

Europe

Logistical challenges in Ukraine and high stockpiles in the domestic markets adversely impacted the EU peanut oil market. This downfall of the market began with Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal in July 2023, disrupting Ukraine's safe shipments via the Black Sea corridor. Despite launching alternative marine corridors, protests by Polish carriers on the Ukraine-Poland border affected trade flows into the EU.

Additionally, the manufacturers and traders raised their freight rail transport tariffs in the first quarter of 2024, increasing logistics costs for farmers and further hampering profitability. This tighter supply of peanut oil and slowing demand from key markets like China, India, and Turkey, along with a widening price gap with palm oil, weighed down the total momentum of the peanut oil price trend during the first quarter of 2024.

North America

The North American peanut oil market faced several challenges driven by uncertainties in global supplies. The quality concerns related to aflatoxin asserted a negative impact on several varieties. In the US, there was a focus on only certain grades of peanuts, which raised the pricing quotations of certain grades of peanut oil and subdued the market dynamics of others.

Additionally, tight supplies, especially from European and Asian countries, further degraded the momentum of the peanut oil market during the Q1 of 2024. The market also suffered from the lowering of export volumes and subsequent reduction of the profit margin of traders as lukewarm sentiments prevailed in the domestic as well as overseas consumer markets.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Peanut Oil is expected to dwindle in the forthcoming quarters as the rising skepticism amid the consumers regarding the quality of peanut oil and their depreciating spending budget under inflationary pressure will exert an ill effect on the pricing movement of peanut oil.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

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Asia

The price trend of peanut oil recorded mixed trajectories in the fourth quarter of 2023. During the first half of Q4’23, the prices kept towards the lower side of the price curve owing to weak demand and ample supplies. The high inventories in the domestic markets of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka, coupled with the low demand from the seed mills and weak buying activity from the traders, stockiest, and exporters, led to a drastic decline in the peanut oil prices.

However, with the arrival of the festive season, the prices of peanuts and, thereby, peanut oil inclined in the second half of Q4’23. Moreover, the demand from the East Asian region drove the price trend of peanut oil in the Indian domestic market towards the end of December.

Europe

In alliance with its Asian counterpart, the price trend for peanut oil underwent oscillations throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. Initially, the prices kept low and increased towards the end of December, reflective of the rising prices in the Asian exporting nations.

North America

Initially, the prices kept low and inclined during the latter half of the fourth quarter, given the arrival of the festive season and increased downstream demands. In comparison with the historical figures, the US recorded low production yields this year as compared to the previous ones. Severe droughts across major peanut-producing regions of Alabama and Florida forecasted 24% and 26% yield decreases in the marketing year 2023/24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Peanut Oil are expected to incline in the coming months, given the low volume of carry-forward stock amid production shortages and high demands.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The adverse effect of poor climatic conditions reduced the availability of peanuts in Asian countries while its demand grew significantly throughout the third quarter. Amid this consistent depletion of inventories, India was able to become the highest exporter of peanut oil, which in turn drove the peanut oil price trend in the northward direction. However, in the last month, the decline in peanut oil prices was steep due to the escalating cost of production, with had an adverse impact on the market dynamics.

Europe

The European countries mimicked the trajectory of the peanut oil price graph as was seen in Asia. The shortage in stocks and active purchasing by the consumer sector helped in the growth of the peanut oil price graph. Further, the inflation in the food products and bolstering prices of crude oil also supported the upward journey of peanut oil prices. But towards the end of the quarter, the trading activities of agricultural products became feeble resulting in the downfall of peanut oil price trend.

North America

North America was also not indifferent from the rest of the countries in terms of peanut oil price trend during the initial phase of the third quarter of 2023. The onset of festival season boosted the rate of procurement of peanut oil and, in turn, its prices. The imports from the majority of overseas nations also declined gradually during this time. However, towards the end, a significant decline in the demand for peanut oil and its export resulted in the southward movement of peanut oil price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Peanut Oil are estimated to face downwards as the demand for peanut oil in the upcoming quarters seems weak while the functioning of supply chains and production units is likely to return at its regular pace.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

The prices of Peanut oil, along with other edible oils, oscillated in the first two quarters of 2023 in the Asia Pacific region due to the unseasonal rainfall and long stretch of monsoon. The dip in the prices was very significant in the second quarter as compared to the first.

However, lower production in Argentina favored the export rates from India, which was evident in the increase in the number of shipments. Along with Argentina, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand also increased their procurement rates of peanut oil, which supported the growth of its prices. In addition to this, domestic demand also played a huge role in keeping the market sentiments of peanut oil afloat amid a weak economy and production. The overall inflation in the food sector due to restricted supply from Ukraine and Russia was also an important cause of the incline in the prices of peanut oil.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Peanut Oil is expected to rise as the demand for Peanut oil around the globe is supported by high consumption rates of consumers while the production of raw materials is adversely affected by poor market conditions.
 

Peanut Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

The price trend for peanut/groundnut oil kept firm throughout the second half of 2023. Despite the falling prices of other edible oils, the market for peanut oil kept strong, given the change in consumer consumption levels. However, the erratic supply of feedstocks heavily impacted peanut oil prices. The Indian peanut industry is undergoing a crisis owing to loss in acreage, untimely rain, crop reduction, and an increase in farmgate vulnerability.

Many farmers have shifted from growing groundnuts to cotton to minimize harvest losses. Given the drastic decrease in acreage in Gujarat, India, the high groundnut prices are unlikely to go down in the 2022-2023 kharif season. Production is estimated to dip below 3 million tonnes in the current season. Further, the huge spurt in global demands exerted pressure on the already constricted supply chains.

The mills are not able to procure groundnuts at affordable rates for crushing, causing the prices of its derived products to rise amid growing demands. The current market dynamics severely impacted the prices of peanut/groundnut oil, averaging around Rs 3000 per 15 kg tin in the Indian market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for peanut oil are expected to remain volatile in the coming months. Given the current vulnerabilities in market supply amid rising demand, groundnut oil is likely to incline.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Peanut Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.