NP Fertiliser Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of NP Fertiliser in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

NP fertilizer Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The Asian countries experienced a number of hits during the third and fourth quarters of 2023, which was well reflected in the oscillating trajectory of the NP fertilizer price trend. The Asian purchasers of fertilizers moved away from China as their main source due to the imposed measures on export quotas.

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This reduced the availability of the material, dried the inventories at a quicker pace, and gave the traders a little room to increase their price quotations of NP fertilizer. The demand from the agricultural industries also showcased significant improvement by the end of the year, favored by the delay in planting season.

Europe

The upbeat momentum of the NP fertilizer price trend in the European countries was based on the rising instances of fertilizer shortage and limited supply from overseas producers. The overseas traders also raised concerns about the decline in the number of international shipments reaching the European ports as the ongoing Israel-Hamas crisis disrupted the Red Sea route. Additionally, the demand from the downstream industries and the rising cost of feedstock materials also played a significant role in keeping the prices of NP fertilizer on the higher end of the pricing spectrum.

North America

The H2 of 2023 witnessed a mixed trend in the prices of NP fertilizer as the prices of feedstock materials dwindled during the said duration. The scanty supply of these fertilizers and robust demand from the downstream industries supported an exponential route for the pricing trajectory of NP fertilizer, but a fall in the prices of crude oil and, in turn, the operational costs restricted the uprise in NP fertilizer prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of NP fertilizer is estimated to be based on the shifting patterns of planting season and uneven distribution of the global approach.

NP Fertiliser Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

After creating havoc with the upsurge in 2022, the NP Fertiliser prices declined significantly in the discussed period of H1’23. At the beginning of the first quarter itself, the FOB (Free on Board) Urea prices were substantially down from last year’s prices, and rock phosphate prices also reduced.

Owing to the reduction in these feedstock costs, the upstream rates took a significant dip. From Jan to Feb, a slight incline was noticed in the NPK fertiliser price graph in the Chinese market. However, there was no retrieval after that. Prices kept on the declining trajectory for the rest of the first and second quarters. Overall, slumping market trends were witnessed.

Europe

The Black Sea deal between Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations primarily caused a decline in the European NP Fertiliser market as the product movement started from these war-torn countries. Inflation also started easing as the Chinese market started opening up after a long halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disrupted supply chains started restoring, and newer trade routes facilitated trade. Improved basic trade fundamentals supported NP Fertiliser exchanges, but the excess of supplies and the unsustainable surge of prices in the previous year caused the price normalization in the said period.

North America

Compared to the other major NP fertiliser markets, the American markets were more inclined. This was a direct result of the difficult economic situation in the country. High inflation made fertilizer procurement expensive. The first quarter saw swift inclinations, and then for some time, the fertiliser prices observed a little stagnancy for the first half of the second quarter. However, the second quarter ended in a slump here as well, following the sluggishness in the global market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, after some normalization in the NP Fertiliser market, the prices are likely to rise in the upcoming months, with inventories vacating quickly amidst steady demands.

NP Fertilizers Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia Pacific

During the third quarter, the cost of water-soluble NP fertilizers significantly increased. The market's sudden and strong demand was greater than the supply could handle. Demand for the product increased dramatically in both the Chinese and Indian markets in the third quarter of 2022.

NP fertilizer prices, however, decreased in the fourth quarter. Due to the lower costs of imports from Northeast Asia and the abundance of stock in that region, the NP fertilizers’ prices fell. The primary contributor to this decline was the stagnant demand from the industrial and agricultural sectors.

Europe

Throughout the third quarter, the prices of NP fertilizers remained strong. The European market witnessed an increase in agricultural activities which fueled increasing demand from the market. The weather patterns and rising energy production costs in the area continued to be advantageous for fertilizer price rise. The fourth quarter did not, however, continue this pattern. The price trend was negatively impacted by rising energy costs and saturated demand.

North America

In the third quarter, the prices of NP fertilizers increased as a result of the skyrocketing demand from the agricultural sector. The agricultural industries dominated the third quarter and drove up the demand for fertilizer and in turn the price trend. However, the cost of these fertilizers fell precipitously in the fourth quarter considering the region's persistently high supply compared to demand.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for NP fertilizers are expected to decline in the upcoming quarter as the demand from the end-user industries seems to be declining. The rising energy costs and disruption in the supply-demand dynamics will lead to a decline in the prices of NP fertilizers.

NP Fertiliser Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

Following an increase of 80% the previous year, fertiliser prices in China have increased by almost 30% since the year's beginning. Several interrelated reasons, such as rising ingredient costs, supply disruptions brought on by sanctions (against Belarus and Russia), and export limitations, all contributed to price increases (China). While phosphate and potash prices were closer to their 2008 peaks, urea prices were higher.

The war in Ukraine heightened worries about the cost and availability of fertiliser. Ammonia output was drastically reduced as a result of rising natural gas prices, particularly in Europe.

Ammonia is a crucial component of nitrogen-based fertilisers. China's ammonia plants were prompted to reduce production due to skyrocketing coal prices, which raised the price of urea. Ammonia and phosphate costs have increased, which has also inflated the price trend for NP fertilisers.

Europe

The cost of Np fertiliser in Europe dropped across the board toward the end of the primary fertiliser season. Granulated urea's international basket price index decreased from just under 1,000 USD/MT to under 700 USD/MT.

Numerous factors contributed to the decrease in the price of nitrogen, including the softening of the cost of natural gas during that time, high prices that reduced demand for nitrogen, and the conclusion of the primary fertiliser season.

North America

Despite stabilising or declining slightly in the five months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NP fertiliser prices are still significantly higher than in 2021, so farmers who bought early to start preparing their crops for 2023 did see the same cost savings as they did last year. However, the second week of June 2022 saw a small decline in retail fertiliser costs.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of NP Fertiliser. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.