Polyalphaolefin (PAO) Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Polyalphaolefin (PAO) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Polyalphaolefin (PAO) Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

Amidst a post-holiday season surge in industrial growth and heightened consumption of Polyalphaolefin in the Chinese market, prices of the product gradually recovered during the first quarter of 2024. This resurgence was largely driven by a revival in Chinese manufacturing activity, leading to a rapid increase in demand from downstream industries.

Polyalphaolefin (PAO) Price Chart

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Interestingly, while the Asian markets experienced this upward trend, European and North American markets followed more conventional patterns. With the rising upstream costs with heightened fuel and energy prices, the prices were pushed further up. Reduced crude oil volumes from OPEC+ became the fundamental growth driver in the Asian region.

Europe

Several influencing factors drove the Polyalphaolefin prices uphill in the European markets. Following the New Year holiday season, there was some marginal recovery; in the end, consumer sentiment was observed, which slightly alleviated inventory strains and amplified demand. Throughout Q1’24, prices sustained their elevated stance, with imports taking precedence over domestic production.

Meanwhile, as the Suez Canal crisis precipitated a surge in freight costs and disruptions in global supply channels was seen. At the same time, Saudi suppliers grappled with mounting input expenses attributed to soaring ethane prices. Concurrently, demand from downstream sectors like lubricants and surfactants experienced a rapid upswing; because of all these reasons, a rising price trajectory was witnessed in the European Polyalphaolefin (PAO) market during the first quarter of 2024.

North America

Following the price surges in the global markets the PAO rates inclined in the American markets as well. Amidst rising demands, a supply crunch was felt in the region, primarily driven by the maintenance shutdowns of various production plants. Polyalphaolefin is a commonly used industrial lubricant and is commonly consumed in the automotive and other manufacturing industries. As the feedstock prices escalated in the middle of the already existing supply crunch the PAO prices too followed that. The suppliers raised the prices, seeing the available revenue margins. Overall, positive market sentiments were observed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polyalphaolefin is estimated to incline in the coming days as well since the growth of the downstream consumption projects an optimistic outlook for the Polyalphaolefin market.

Polyalphaolefin Price Trend for October - December of 2023

Asia

The outlook of Asian Polyalphaolefin price trend was similar to the European and North American markets. The region faced a shortage in demand for new automobiles, which was evident in their rates of procurement of poly alpha-olefin. The region also suffered from weak momentum of upstream crude oil and fuel prices as the domestic supply of these commodities surpassed its demand, which eventually showcased its negative impact on the Polyalphaolefin price graph.

Europe

A period of stagnation occurred in the European Polyalphaolefin market in the latter months of the end quarter of 2023. This was mainly due to a decrease in demand from the automotive and downstream lubricant industries, as they themselves struggled with the decline in sales numbers.

To add to the list of challenges, the supply of raw materials in the region was also abundant, and that, in turn, lowered its cost. In November 2023, the European Statistics Department released data showing a 3.2% positive inflation rate, which set the stage for market dynamics as it led to the fall the consumer and investors' confidence in the regional Polyalphaolefin industries.

North America

Throughout the fourth quarter, the US Polyalphaolefin market saw a pessimistic trend, which was linked to an excess supply and decreased demand from the automotive and lubricant industries. The concerns regarding decreased expenditure by the consumer sector on automobiles and other downstream products caused wrinkles in the trading sector.

As a result, in order to reduce the built-up inventory pressure, the traders started practicing destocking activities by offering discounts on bulk purchases of poly alpha-olefin. Additionally, obstructions in the Panama Canal impeded international trade from the United States, leading to shipment delays and overall subdued dynamics of the Polyalphaolefin market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polyalphaolefin are expected to face a downturn in its prices as the consumer demand and overall overview of the market do not look in favor of the said market.

Polyalphaolefin Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

The initial phase was riddled with the weak performance of the downstream industries, but as the quarter progressed, the polyalphaolefin price trend inclined. First, the market struggled with lower demand, declining sentiments of the downstream industries, and lower rates of imports. However, the Chinese economy improved significantly in the later stages of the quarter as compared to the US dollar. In addition to this, the incline in demand and significant appreciation in the cost of crude oil prices further supported the rise in the polyalphaolefin price trend.

Europe

The inclination in the polyalphaolefin prices was supported by high demand from the lubricant industry and other related sectors. In addition to this, the fall in the rates of production and a high number of exports to Asian countries also played a major role in keeping the polyalphaolefin price graph in the green zone.

The supply depreciation and consistently declining inventories also exerted their positive influence on the polyalphaolefin price trend. However, the growth trajectory of polyalphaolefin prices stabilized somehow towards the end of the third quarter on account of stagnancy in the number of inquiries of the automotive's domestic and overseas sectors.

North America

In the third quarter, the polyalphaolefin price trend showcased an opposite trajectory as that was observed in the Asia Pacific and European countries. The market registered a substantial decline due to the slowing down of economic recovery and the sliding value of the US dollar. In addition to this, the adverse effect of poor economic growth in North America was also seen in the manufacturing sector. The rates of production of polyalphaolefin, as a result, also remained subdued during this quarter, causing an excess of pressure on the traders, and causing the whole polyalphaolefin price trend to suffer.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polyalphaolefin are expected to oscillate amid the fluctuating demand dynamics and weak growth of the global economy.

Polyalphaolefin Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Polyalphaolefin prices had a mixed run in the Asian market in the first half of 2023. Market dynamics were mostly stable during the said period. Mild demands supported the fair production capacities. Downstream automotive and lubricant industries also posed fair demands stabilizing the market. Feedstock ethylene (derived from crude oil) also fluctuated on the lower side in the discussed period, contributing to the sullen movement in the price curve. Overall, Polyalphaolefin prices wavered on the lower side during the first half of 2023.

Europe

European Polyalphaolefin markets exhibited sullen price trend during H1 2023. The European automotive industry has been hit hard by the economic crisis because which affected Polyalphaolefin consumption rates. The consumers posed bearish demands causing the inventories to overflow. European suppliers placed very limited orders only as per downstream inquiries. Overall, market sentiments remained dull and slow because of high supply and low demand.

North America

The Polyalphaolefin market in the North American region replicated stable sentiments from the Asian market. Crude oil prices were stable, and feedstock ethylene prices were also relatively steady. The automotive sector had a warm run which kept the demand dynamics stable. Overall, the market was slow yet stable as the supply-demand equilibrium remained constant.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Polyalphaolefin market is expected to continue the same lukewarm growth as the supply-demand dynamics are stable. Demand from downstream industries will continue to drive the Polyalphaolefin market.

Polyalphaolefin (PAO) Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The market for poly-alpha-olefins saw an uprising trend throughout the third quarter. The decrease in the demand from the automotive sector and the decline in ethylene costs did not affect the market much. This incline in prices is majorly attributed to the stable demand from the EV market. The prices then dipped in the fourth quarter due to the decline in demand from the automotive industry. Poor economic conditions, a rise in COVID-19 restrictions, and poor demand from the end-user industries led to the decline in the prices.

Europe

Throughout the third quarter, the prices declined due to the poor performance of the automotive industry. The high costs of energy production and the operation rates of the automotive industry remained low during the quarter. The fourth quarter, however, saw a marginal incline in the prices initially due to the rise in the feedstock costs. The rise in the operational cost during the first half of the fourth quarter drove the rise in the prices. This rise was short-lived as the rise in inventories during the later months led to a decline in the prices.

North America

The prices declined during the third quarter due to the decline in the performance of the automotive sector in the North American region. The decline in the feedstock demand also contributed to this decline. The fourth quarter also showcased a similar trend in the price of the commodity. Increased production costs, poor demand, a rise in natural gas costs, and reduced exports during the third quarter led to a decline in the prices of the commodity.

Analyst Insight

The prices of PAO are likely to decrease during the coming month given the rise in the domestic inventories, poor demand from the automotive sector, and high inflation in the market.

Polyalphaolefin (PAO) Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend of PAO (Polyalphaolefin) registered a fluctuating pattern throughout the said period in the Asian market. The Indian automotive industry suffered owing to the trade restrictions, supply shortages and higher operating costs, hence the prices in the Indian market slipped averaging 4885 USD/MT.

However, in the Chinese domestic arena, the automotive industry kept stable owing to the muted demand with the price of PAO averaging 3515 USD/MT. However, the prices soon stabilized during the second quarter as trade and port congestion relaxed owing to which the feedstock prices stabilized. Hence, the booming demand from the automotive industry caused the PAO prices to increase.

Europe

The European market closely followed its Asian counterpart. The prices dipped during the first quarter and stabilized during the second quarter. Suffering from the direct consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the entire European region registered double-digit inflation.

These inflated prices discouraged the automotive sector and hence the price of PAO suffered averaging 4170 USD/MT. However, the prices stabilized towards the second quarter as the feedstock prices relaxed with the arrival of substitute shipments from other regions.

North America

The price trend for PAO kept strong throughout the year’s first half due to the unaffected demands from the resource-hungry automotive sector. The price of polyalphaolefins averaged 3260 USD/MT during the said period in the US domestic market.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Polyalphaolefin (PAO). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.