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Potash Price Trend and Forecast
Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Potash in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).
Potash Price Trend for the First Half of 2023
Potash prices have continuously fallen in the first half of the year 2023. Russia used to be the biggest exporter of Potash before it waged a war on Ukraine. But, since the sanctions were imposed on Russian imports, the Potash prices had skyrocketed in 2022. However, in 2023, countries like Canada increased their exports, and Russia’s significance tumbled in the fertilizer market. The demands for Potash have also been low this fiscal year.
Imports have remained slower in 2023 as well, with potash exports from Belarus still affected by the sanctions. It is expected that U.S. potash prices could strengthen later this year owing to less available supply, depending on how Canadian potash export flows shape up over the coming months. Overall, dull market sentiments were observed in the concerned period.
According to Procurement Resource, with the demands set to rise in the coming months, potash price trend are also expected to rise.
Potash Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022
After reaching unprecedented heights in the first half of 2022 because of the cut down in the black sea supplies from Russia, Ukraine, and their neighboring countries, the potash prices stabilized in the latter half of the year. In the USA, the prices fell by around 8% within the discussed period. Potash prices averaged about 807 USD/MT in December 2022, depreciating from the average of about 885 USD/MT in June’22.
The end consumer demands saw depression because of unsustainably high costs, which led to a reduction in sales; moreover, as the war progressed, markets developed methods to work around it. Other producing nations like Canada ramped up mining and exports to leverage the supply gap.
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Potash will depreciate further as the trade normalization proceeds amidst the speculations of the war stretching even longer.
For the Second Quarter of 2022
In China, Malaysia and Indonesia, price of potash was high in the second quarter of 2022. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia are major potash-consuming countries where the prices rose sharply. Global sanctions on potash from Belarus and restricted exports from Russia also accelerated the potash prices due to limited supply.
In Europe, the potash market witnessed an uptrend in prices following the Ukraine-Russia war which resulted in global supply chain disruptions and potash prices were expected to rise even further in future.
The prices for potash mostly remained on the lower side in Q2 of 2022. Potash prices in the US in May were even lower than those in April as a result of import volumes from Canada and Russia.
For instance, the FOB NOLA granular barge prices per ton were down from 800 USD in April to around 770-780 USD in May. Even though the river terminal prices were higher than the barge prices at around 780-815 USD per ton, they had still fallen by 25 dollars month-over-month.
In Brazil, the potash demand was low in the second quarter of 2022 which caused a downward price trend, not just locally but all around the world. The spring season had begun late which led to low demand and did not prompt fill buying for potash as prices remained on the downward side.
For the First Quarter of 2022
Following Western economic sanctions against a major potash supplier in Belarus, potash prices in the United States and Brazil are at multi-year highs. The strong worldwide demand and limited supply are contributing to the price increase. On March 9, the price of poash in the United States reached an all-time high of 815 USD/MT.
Brazil is also on the lookout for a new fertiliser supply, as the conflict in Ukraine threatens to halt nutrient exports to the country. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertiliser, with Russia accounting for about a fifth of those imports. The Russian commerce ministry has requested that fertiliser exports be halted. There were several challenges with global fertiliser supplies even before the conflict.
For the Fourth Quarter of 2021
The price in Asia declined in the fourth quarter after reaching a new high the previous quarter. During the festive season, the market in India turned bullish, backing this strong rise in India.
Following a dip in demand during the holiday season, the trend reversed in the final month of the quarter. Price continued to fall in December, with supply outstripping demand. Traders remained anxious about their inventory levels, and vigorous negotiations to encourage the sale of current goods before the end of the year were allowed to continue.
During the fourth quarter of 2021, the price continued to rise. Although demand from downstream sectors such as fertilisers was low, availability remained low as transportation operations were halted in some regions due to weather conditions, maintaining potash prices modestly. Trading operations in Asia and Europe remained limited due to congestion on key trade routes, high freight costs, and other issues. A lack of containers also influenced the price in the region.
Price in North America was held in a constant to tight range in Q4 due to insufficient demand. As the holiday season approached, buyer interest waned in the last two months of the year. Muriate Of Potash prices were quoted at 800 USD/MT CFR New York. The demand dropped even more at the peak of the winter season, as end-use sectors had already purchased enough cargoes at the start of the quarter. The price remained steady in Q4 due to unbalanced demand and supply dynamics.
Price in Brazil in December had increased by 550 USD/MT by the end of December 2021 and CFR potash prices were reported at 800 USD/MT. The price increased in the region as imports dwindled and demand increased as the Brazilian agricultural land was lacking in potash which increased the fertilizer demand, thereby causing the price to soar.
For First, Second and Third Quarters 2021
Prices in Brazil increased in May-June. In the first quarter, CFR potash prices were around 245 USD/MT which increased in the May-June period and remained high for the rest of the year. The prices increased by 550 USD/MT, to 800 USD/MT following a shortage in supply as Belarus exports faced sanctions even though Brazil had not announced any sanctions on Belarus. Brazil also faced import competition from Canada which was the second largest importer of potash in 2021.
For the Year 2020
In April 2020, the Muriate of Potash (MOP) prices in Brazil were reported at 215 USD/MT following which the prices witnessed an upward trend in the region.
Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Potash. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.
Potash is composed of several mined and manufactured salts that include potassium in water-soluble form. The name derives from pot ash, that basically refers to plant ashes soaked in water in a pot. Its ores are generally rich in potassium chloride (KCl), sodium chloride (NaCl) and some other salts and clays.
|Food, Fertiliser, Animal Seed, Soaps, Water Softeners, Glass
|Nutrien Limited, The Mosaic Company, Intrepid Potash Inc, Arab Potash Company, EuroChem Group AG, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
|Asia Pacific: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America: United States and Canada
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
|US$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
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The primary chemical compound in the reaction is potassium carbonate, which is derived by leaching the ashes in big iron pots to dissolve out the soluble components. Evaporation of the solution using percolation results in the production of Potash.
The displayed pricing data is derived through weighted average purchase price, including contract and spot transactions at the specified locations unless otherwise stated. The information provided comes from the compilation and processing of commercial data officially reported for each nation (i.e. government agencies, external trade bodies, and industry publications).
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Phone:+1 307 363 1045
Phone: +91 1203185500
Phone: +44 7537 132103