Potash Price Trends and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trends analysis of Potash in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Potash Price Trends for the First Half of 2023

Potash prices have continuously fallen in the first half of the year 2023. Russia used to be the biggest exporter of Potash before it waged a war on Ukraine. But, since the sanctions were imposed on Russian imports, the Potash prices had skyrocketed in 2022. However, in 2023, countries like Canada increased their exports, and Russia’s significance tumbled in the fertilizer market. The demands for Potash have also been low this fiscal year.

Imports have remained slower in 2023 as well, with potash exports from Belarus still affected by the sanctions. It is expected that U.S. potash prices could strengthen later this year owing to less available supply, depending on how Canadian potash export flows shape up over the coming months. Overall, dull market sentiments were observed in the concerned period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the demands set to rise in the coming months, potash price trends are also expected to rise.

Potash Price Trends for the Second Half of 2022

After reaching unprecedented heights in the first half of 2022 because of the cut down in the black sea supplies from Russia, Ukraine, and their neighboring countries, the potash prices stabilized in the latter half of the year. In the USA, the prices fell by around 8% within the discussed period. Potash prices averaged about 807 USD/MT in December 2022, depreciating from the average of about 885 USD/MT in June’22.

The end consumer demands saw depression because of unsustainably high costs, which led to a reduction in sales; moreover, as the war progressed, markets developed methods to work around it. Other producing nations like Canada ramped up mining and exports to leverage the supply gap.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for Potash will depreciate further as the trade normalization proceeds amidst the speculations of the war stretching even longer.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China, Malaysia and Indonesia, price of potash was high in the second quarter of 2022. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia are major potash-consuming countries where the prices rose sharply. Global sanctions on potash from Belarus and restricted exports from Russia also accelerated the potash prices due to limited supply.

Europe

In Europe, the potash market witnessed an uptrend in prices following the Ukraine-Russia war which resulted in global supply chain disruptions and potash prices were expected to rise even further in future.

North America

The prices for potash mostly remained on the lower side in Q2 of 2022. Potash prices in the US in May were even lower than those in April as a result of import volumes from Canada and Russia.

For instance, the FOB NOLA granular barge prices per ton were down from 800 USD in April to around 770-780 USD in May. Even though the river terminal prices were higher than the barge prices at around 780-815 USD per ton, they had still fallen by 25 dollars month-over-month.

Latin America

In Brazil, the potash demand was low in the second quarter of 2022 which caused a downward price trends, not just locally but all around the world. The spring season had begun late which led to low demand and did not prompt fill buying for potash as prices remained on the downward side.

For the First Quarter of 2022

North America

Following Western economic sanctions against a major potash supplier in Belarus, potash prices in the United States and Brazil are at multi-year highs. The strong worldwide demand and limited supply are contributing to the price increase. On March 9, the price of poash in the United States reached an all-time high of 815 USD/MT.

Brazil is also on the lookout for a new fertiliser supply, as the conflict in Ukraine threatens to halt nutrient exports to the country. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertiliser, with Russia accounting for about a fifth of those imports. The Russian commerce ministry has requested that fertiliser exports be halted. There were several challenges with global fertiliser supplies even before the conflict.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The price in Asia declined in the fourth quarter after reaching a new high the previous quarter. During the festive season, the market in India turned bullish, backing this strong rise in India.

Following a dip in demand during the holiday season, the trends reversed in the final month of the quarter. Price continued to fall in December, with supply outstripping demand. Traders remained anxious about their inventory levels, and vigorous negotiations to encourage the sale of current goods before the end of the year were allowed to continue.

Europe

During the fourth quarter of 2021, the price continued to rise. Although demand from downstream sectors such as fertilisers was low, availability remained low as transportation operations were halted in some regions due to weather conditions, maintaining potash prices modestly. Trading operations in Asia and Europe remained limited due to congestion on key trade routes, high freight costs, and other issues. A lack of containers also influenced the price in the region.

North America

Price in North America was held in a constant to tight range in Q4 due to insufficient demand. As the holiday season approached, buyer interest waned in the last two months of the year. Muriate Of Potash prices were quoted at 800 USD/MT CFR New York. The demand dropped even more at the peak of the winter season, as end-use sectors had already purchased enough cargoes at the start of the quarter. The price remained steady in Q4 due to unbalanced demand and supply dynamics.

Latin America

Price in Brazil in December had increased by 550 USD/MT by the end of December 2021 and CFR potash prices were reported at 800 USD/MT. The price increased in the region as imports dwindled and demand increased as the Brazilian agricultural land was lacking in potash which increased the fertilizer demand, thereby causing the price to soar.

For First, Second and Third Quarters 2021

Latin America

Prices in Brazil increased in May-June. In the first quarter, CFR potash prices were around 245 USD/MT which increased in the May-June period and remained high for the rest of the year. The prices increased by 550 USD/MT, to 800 USD/MT following a shortage in supply as Belarus exports faced sanctions even though Brazil had not announced any sanctions on Belarus. Brazil also faced import competition from Canada which was the second largest importer of potash in 2021.

For the Year 2020

Latin America

In April 2020, the Muriate of Potash (MOP) prices in Brazil were reported at 215 USD/MT following which the prices witnessed an upward trends in the region.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Potash. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.