RBD Palm Oil Price Trend and Forecast

RBD Palm Oil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of RBD Palm Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

RBD Palm Oil Price Trend for Q1 of 2025

Asia

The shortage of crude palm oil (CPO) led to a steady increase in RBD palm oil prices across Asia during the first quarter. Indonesia allocated more of its resources to biodiesel production, reducing export volumes. Additionally, unfavorable weather conditions and labor shortages slowed production. While Malaysia managed to offset some of this decline, overall inventories remained low during the period. Major importers, including India and China, faced increased costs, putting pressure on refiners and traders.
 

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The usual price gap between palm oil and other vegetable oils narrowed, making alternatives such as soybean and sunflower oil more viable, particularly in India, where palm oil imports declined. Additionally, rising shipping expenses pushed up import costs, particularly during the Chinese New Year celebrations, though prices stabilized later in the quarter.

Europe

Mirroring the price trends in Asia, Europe's RBD palm oil market saw an increase in prices during the first quarter of 2025. Stricter EU import regulations, particularly on non-certified palm oil, made imports more challenging. Furthermore, the rise in crude palm oil prices led to higher production costs for refiners. Some food and chemical manufacturers attempted to substitute RBD palm oil with rapeseed and sunflower oil, but the prices of these alternatives were not competitive. Shipping disruptions and elevated freight costs, further contributed to the price increase. Despite strong demand, buyers remained cautious and hesitant to commit to long-term contracts due to fluctuating prices.

North America

In North America, RBD palm oil prices rose gradually during the first quarter, following trends observed in Asian and European markets. Since most of the supply originates from Southeast Asia, disruptions there had a direct impact on availability. Additionally, rising shipping costs significantly contributed to higher import prices. Increased demand for vegetable oils in the U.S., particularly within the biofuel sector, intensified market competition. Higher costs left food manufacturers and refiners with limited options, forcing them to either absorb the expenses or pass them on to consumers. Despite shifting demand patterns, buyers focused on controlling costs rather than reducing purchases.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, RBD palm oil prices are expected to rise due to increasing upstream costs and moderate stock levels.
 

RBD Palm Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2024

Asia

The Asian region experienced stable but gradually increasing RBD Palm Oil prices during H2’24. The Chinese market played a pivotal role in setting regional price trends. Demand remained strong across multiple sectors, particularly food processing and oleochemicals.

Supply constraints and logistical challenges in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia contributed to price firmness. The market saw strategic buying patterns, with many buyers opting for long-term contracts to hedge against further price increases. Weather-related disruptions in key producing regions and increased domestic consumption in Indonesia, particularly for biodiesel programs, further supported the bullish price trend.

Europe

European RBD Palm Oil markets demonstrated remarkable resilience and upward momentum in the second half of 2024. The market witnessed initial price volatility due to currency fluctuations but eventually stabilized at higher levels. Strong consumer demand and efficient inventory management by traders contributed to sustained price strength. The European market particularly benefited from improved supply chain efficiency and strategic trading relationships with key Asian suppliers. Higher freight rates and increased focus on sustainable sourcing added premium elements to the pricing structure. The oleochemical sector's consistent demand provided additional support to market values.

North America

North American RBD Palm Oil prices showed consistent growth throughout the second half of 2024. The market was primarily driven by strong end-user demand and strategic inventory building by importers. A notable price surge occurred as manufacturers stockpiled inventory amid rising freight costs and overall market optimism. The interconnected nature of edible oil markets, particularly the parallel increases in soybean and sunflower oil prices, provided additional support to palm oil values. Importers and distributors successfully passed on the higher costs to end-users, indicating robust downstream demand and market acceptance of elevated price levels.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, RBD Palm Oil prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory through 2025, driven by supply constraints, weather concerns, and expanding biodiesel mandates in key producing countries. The market dynamics suggest continued price strength, though increasing price spread against substitute oils may influence buying patterns.
 

RBD Palm Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

In Asia, the early months of 2024 saw a sharp rise in RBD palm oil prices, primarily driven by the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon, which led to unfavorable planting conditions and reduced output from key producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia. These countries faced dry weather that severely impacted palm fruit yields, resulting in lower production levels. Additionally, export restrictions imposed by these countries exacerbated the supply shortage, further driving up prices. The situation was compounded by higher biofuel mandates that increased domestic demand for palm oil, tightening the supply even more.

However, as the second quarter unfolded, the market began to witness a decline in prices. This was due to a notable recovery in production as growing conditions improved, leading to a better-than-expected harvest. Despite a stronger US dollar, which made palm oil more attractive to international buyers, global demand weakened, particularly in industries like food manufacturing, cosmetics, and oleochemicals. Economic slowdowns in key markets and strategic delays in purchasing by buyers expecting lower prices also contributed to the downward pressure on prices.

Europe

In Europe, RBD palm oil prices experienced a continuous upward trajectory throughout the first half of 2024. The El Niño weather conditions, similar to those in Asia, significantly disrupted palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, the primary suppliers to the European market. The dryness caused by El Niño reduced palm fruit availability and yields, leading to a tight supply of palm oil. This scarcity was further aggravated by the shrinking water reservoirs and dry planting conditions in these regions.

As European economies showed signs of recovery, demand for palm oil from end-user industries such as food, cosmetics, and oleochemicals remained robust. However, supply chain disruptions, including those caused by adverse weather and delays in transport routes like the Red Sea, added to the challenges. The depreciation of the euro against the dollar also increased the cost of imports, keeping prices elevated. Furthermore, limited warehouse stocks in Europe contributed to the sustained high prices of RBD palm oil.

North America

In North America, the pricing pattern of RBD palm oil followed a trajectory similar to that in Asia and Europe. The introduction of numerous biofuel initiatives in the region led to increased domestic consumption of palm oil, while supply remained constrained due to the limited production from key global suppliers. Initially, market players relied on existing inventories to meet demand, but these stocks proved insufficient as the year progressed. This led to a significant rise in prices. The situation was exacerbated by supply chain issues, including the temporary closure of the Baltimore port and low water levels in crucial transit routes such as the Panama and Suez Canal, which further restricted the flow of palm oil into the region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of RBD Palm Oil is expected to be driven by the intricate balance of supply and demand in the forthcoming quarters.
 

RBD Palm Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

RBD palm oil has less trans-fat and is gaining customer preferences as they look for healthier cooking oils in 2023. The market demand was further influenced by the rise in its popularity in a variety of food applications, including baking and frying. The growth in the market was also fueled by rising demand from the food processing sector and the growing usage of palm oil in non-food industries like biodiesel and cosmetics.

In the later months of 2023, global edible oil prices experienced a significant decrease, offering relief to consumers however, alleviating food inflation concerns amid traders and manufacturers. In the earlier months of H2 of 2023, the limited availability of the product in the market and robust demand led to an incline in the RBD Palm oil prices gradually. The prices of edible oils dropped by varying percentages particularly in the end months of the year after stumbling during most of the year.

The decline was attributed to the global cooling of edible oil prices, prompting increased imports in India, particularly due to lower import duties on different types of crude oils. This surge in imports raised the stockpiles in the Indian market, ensuring a sustained supply over an extended period. The Asian market analysts anticipate that edible oil prices will remain stable over the next 3-6 months, driven by steady global supply and potential domestic interventions to manage prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of RBD Palm Oil is estimated to attain stagnancy in the upcoming quarters as the demand and supply sectors of the market are expected to attain an equilibrium.
 

RBD Palm Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

RBD Palm Oil is a more refined and processed version of Palm Oil, so the price trend for RBD Palm Oil closely mimic the price trend for Palm Oil. Asia, especially countries like Indonesia, exports the majority of RBD Palm Oil to the world. So, the global RBD Palm Oil price trend are influenced substantially by the market trend in the Asian market.

RBD Palm Oil observed mixed price trend throughout the first half of 2023. As Indonesia tried to promote exports, the export tariffs were eased, bringing down the overall upstream costs, and freight normalization also contributed to the trend. So, Q1 experienced low swinging price trend. But exports were constricted a little in the second quarter to stabilize the domestic market, so little upward push was seen. However, the market fluctuations were in a very narrow range, so the overall market sentiments remained dull throughout.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the RBD Palm Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating in the upcoming months owing to the current trading atmosphere amid uncertain demand and rising inflation rates.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of RBD Palm Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.