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Soybean Oil Price Trend and Forecast
Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Soybean Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).
Soybean Oil Price Trend for the October - December of 2023
The soybean oil prices showcased mixed market trend during the fourth quarter of the year 2023 in the Asian markets. In the Indian domestic soybean oil market, the monthly average prices first decreased by about 4% from October to November of 2023 and then increased by about 12% in the next couple of months.
This variation in the monthly average prices led to an overall quarterly inclination of about 7% as the prices averaged at around 1019 USD/MT (CIF, India) in October and rose to average at around 1096 USD/MT in the month of December. Various factors contributed to these variations in the market patterns. The global soybean oil market was witnessed to be rising as the primary soybean oil exporting nations like Brazil saw a significant fall in crop yield because of adverse weather conditions. Overall, mixed market sentiments were witnessed.
The European market trend for soybean oil were largely in alliance with the Asian market during the given period. The lack of exports from the major exporting nations created supply curtailments in the European soybean oil markets. Due to this, the prices varied on the higher end of the price scale for the majority of the discussed period. Overall, positive market sentiments were witnessed in Q4’23.
The fourth quarter began with a record decline in soybean oil exports from this leading soy-producing region. In October, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and the United States saw a 10-year low in soybean oil exports. This was major because of the fall in production yields of the soy crop, particularly in Brazil. Overall, high-swinging market trend were witnessed for most of Q4’23.
According to Procurement Resource, Soybean Oil price trend are expected to rise further in the coming months. The market projections are fairly positive as the supply constraints are still driving the market.
Soybean Oil Price Trend for the July-September of 2023
In Asian countries, the cost of soybeans surged helping the soybean oil prices to incline in the third quarter of 2023. The extreme weather conditions and slow imports of soybeans depleted the inventory levels and posed a problem for the manufacturers as, in view of this, they had to raise their production costs and, in turn, the soybean oil price trend. However, this affected the existing stockpiles of soybean oil, which declined consistently as the manufacturing and supply chains failed to meet consumer expectations. Further, the escalating rates of procurement due to the holiday season in the region also proved fruitful for the soybean oil price graph.
In Europe, the surging cost of production due to the limited availability of soybeans and lower imports resulted in the inclination in the soybean oil price trend. In addition to this, the manufacturing sector also faced several challenges due to a contraction in its activities and a lower number of overseas imports, which had an adverse effect on the existing soybean oil inventories and thus helped in the rise in its price trend. Further, the market also benefitted from the low pressure of inflation and comparative decline in recession in the majority of European countries.
The North American region also struggled with lower yields of soybean crops due to unfavorable weather conditions and a decline in imports as the Asian currency appreciated by several folds as compared to the US dollar. Additionally, after a slight stumble during the initial phase of the quarter, the demand for soybean oil and the cost of natural gas rose by a good number, giving the soybean oil market its required momentum.
According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Soybean Oil are estimated to be dictated by the rise in demand and depleted level of inventories.
Soybean Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023
Soybean Oil prices fluctuated throughout the first half of 2023. Prices initially showed declining trend during the first quarter despite substantial demands, as inventories ran high. The soybean oil prices seesawed further in the second quarter, even though the production yield was good in the exporting nations. It was domestic demands from the downstream industries and the end consumer markets that affected the Soybean Oil market prices in regional Asian markets.
The European Soybean Oil market mostly oscillated on the lower end of the price curve as the upstream costs declined. Fuel and energy prices started to normalize along with supply chain restoration. Also, the black sea deal let the Ukrainian supply enter the market, which increased the supply quantity for soybean, decreasing the upstream costs for Soyabean Oil. With lowered upstream costs, ample supply, and moderate demands, price trend for soybean oil remained southward facing for most of the said period.
US Soybean Oil prices replicated the European market trend during H1 2023. Prices remained low throughout most of the period, with some reverse fluctuations observed at the quarter shift. Excess availability of various edible oils in the highly competitive market affected the demand, so the prices declined for edible oils in general. Overall, the Soybean Oil market remained afloat in the US domestic market.
According to Procurement Resource, Soybean Oil prices are expected to continue behaving in a similar manner as the market is witnessing high inventories among divided demands. It will take serious measures by the stakeholders involved to revive the market demands to alter the price trend significantly.
Soybean Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022
Asian Soybean Oil market witnessed fluctuating price patterns throughout the said period. The market had a slow start given prices fell throughout the first half of Q3, as the supplies kept piling up amidst supply chain disruptions and freight disturbances. But as the transportation started normalizing and the consumer queries started seeing a rise in the market, soybean oil prices rose and remained on the inclined trajectory. However, it was only in the late Q4 when the demand stabilized leading to normalisation of prices.
Soybean Oil prices exhibited mixed trend in the European markets in the second half of 2022. Prices started low as the European markets were badly hit by low demands given the heavy inflation because of the Russia – Ukraine war. The price trend temporarily moved up to come down again at the beginning of the fourth quarter as the overall trade activities took a hit. However, the price trend for soybean oil stabilized towards the end of concerned period.
US Soybean Oil prices fluctuated throughout the second half of 2022. Contrary to the global market prices started high here as the trade blockages in Europe caused the potential customers to shift to US market. Hence, the US Soybean Oil prices rose rapidly in the first half of Q3. But as the other markets started opening up and diversification started, the demand started stabilizing causing the price trend for soybean oil to decline.
According to Procurement Resource, Soybean Oil prices are expected to remain fluctuating in the upcoming months given the current supply-demand dynamics. The highly erratic supply amid uncertain demands will strongly impact the edible oil market.
For the Second Quarter of 2022
Soybean Oil prices tend to fluctuate globally as it is influenced by several factors both domestic and geopolitical. The Indonesian government imposed a historic ban on palm oil exports (as of 28 April 2022) to stabilize the domestic crisis. Hence, a huge void was created in the market with the governments looking for substitutes.
As a result, prices of other domestic oils such as soybean oil rose to a consequential high. Due to the mismatch between the demand and supply the market dynamics shifted with the record price of 1630.80 USD/MT (29 April 2022) and averaged the second quarter at 1518.83 USD/MT for India.
China is a net importer, even being one of the biggest producers of the commodity. The country almost entirely exhausts its domestic supply and relies heavily on imports.
However, amidst the ongoing crisis, the price trend of soybean oil was stable due to the fall in demand by downstream sectors. As per the market data, soybean oil prices averaged 9232.66 RMB/MT ($1370.50 approx.) for the current quarter.
Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe is now looking for alternatives to meet the growing domestic demand. Also, to meet the new blending requirements, the EU is trying to expand its portfolio and has increased the imports of soybean oil.
EU soybean oil imports increased to 6.95% than the previous year amounting to 496,453 MT as of June 2022.
For countries like the USA, domestic demand plays an important role in setting the price trend for soybean oil along with the international scenarios. The latest biodiesel and biofuel policy released by the US administration has led to increased demands by the industries, creating supply issues in the domestic market and driving soybean oil prices.
With the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world is deprived of the black sea sunflower oil, thereby creating more demand for soybean oil in the USA. Currently, soybean oil price stands at 0.7012 USD/lb or 1545.87 USD/MT- more than a third rise for the price of the commodity in the domestic market. However, due to the speculations about the recession and the uncertainty regarding the US soybean harvest, the prices are likely to stabilize.
Soybean oil prices reached a record-breaking high in this quarter. The worsened domestic supply along with the lack of substitutes caused the prices to skyrocket to 1900 USD/MT surpassing all the historical data recorded. Heat waves and subsequent droughts destroyed the soybean harvest leading to shortages in the market.
As of 28 April, the Argentinian FOB Up River soybean oil was priced at 1,909.20 USD/MT and the Brazilian FOB Paranagua was priced at 1,902.59 USD/MT. These prices are likely to grow due to the disrupted black sea sunflower oil from Ukraine and the export ban by Indonesia.
For the First Quarter of 2022
The external oil market expanded rapidly during the Qingming vacation, fueled by the crude oil market. Following the festival, the soybean oil futures market expanded significantly, and the spot market followed suit.
The soybean oil market was expected to remain strong in the short term. On the other hand, the soybean oil and palm oil markets rose on March 24th. Soybean oil averaged 11,146 RMB/MT, up 2.73 percent in a single day, while palm oil averaged 12,994 RMB/MT, up 1.44 percent.
CBOT soybean futures hit 17.65 USD/bushel in Q1 2022, just 29.75 cents lower than the 2012 peak. The price had risen above the 16.70 USD barrier, according to quarterly price momentum and relative strength indicators. Soybean futures rose 21.79 percent in the first quarter, closing at 16.1825 USD/bushel on March 31st. A poor harvest in South America has kept prices stable in recent months, pushing soybeans to an 11-year high in Q1 2022.
Soybean oil prices in South America have risen to historic highs, breaking through the 1,900 USD/MT barrier for the first time due to a scarcity of edible oils, with market participants expecting further increases.
FOB prices in Argentina and Brazil have been rising since late February, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea sunflower oil supplies, driving global edible oil prices sharply higher amid already tight stocks. The latest boost to this upward trend came from Indonesia, the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, which banned shipments of crude and refined palm oil products on April 28 to combat rising domestic cooking oil prices.
For the Fourth Quarter of 2021
India (USD 3 billion) is the world's largest importer of soybean oil, accounting for 29% of total imports. China (USD 725 million) came in second place, accounting for 7% of the overall value.
Soy oil's increased use in the manufacture of shortenings, margarine, and salad dressings in Europe and North America has also contributed to its rising demand. The increased demand for edible oils in the biofuel industry increased market demand in the fourth quarter of the year.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the average US crude soybean oil price in North America was 1386 USD/MT. Because of growing concerns about nonrenewable energy sources, biofuel has become a thriving industry. Governments in North America were making significant investments in biofuel production.
The increased biodiesel production capacity had a significant impact on global demand for soybean-derived oil. Because it has a higher BTU value and burns more efficiently and cleanly, the oil is used as a feedstock for biodiesel production. The US government provides a dollar-per-gallon subsidy to biodiesel companies that use virgin vegetable oil as a feedstock.
Despite the fact that Brazil, the world's largest soybean producer, increased harvested area by 4% over the previous year, dryness significantly reduced yields. Brazil's soybean output is expected to fall 3% year on year to 134 MMT.
Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Soybean Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.
Soybean or better known as the soya bean is a species of legume native to East Asia. It is extensively grown for its edible bean, that comes with several benefits. The conventional unfermented food uses of soybeans include soy milk, from which tofu and tofu skin are prepared or can be produced or prepared. Fermented soy foods include soy sauce, fermented bean paste, natto, and tempeh.
|Vegetable oil, Biodiesel, Condiment for salads, Printing ink and oil paint formulations, Fixative
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Europe: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America: United States and Canada
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
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In this process, first soybeans undergo cracking process and then heated at a temperature ranging between 60-88oC or 140-190 °F. These are further rolled into flakes and solvent-extracted with hexanes. The oil obtained is finally refined and blended for distinct applications, and often hydrogenated.
The displayed pricing data is derived through weighted average purchase price, including contract and spot transactions at the specified locations unless otherwise stated. The information provided comes from the compilation and processing of commercial data officially reported for each nation (i.e. government agencies, external trade bodies, and industry publications).
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Phone:+1 307 363 1045
Phone: +91 1203185500
Phone: +44 7537 132103