Tomato paste prices moved higher in the first half of 2026, as both raw material and processing costs increased. In Q1, global tomato supply tightened after tariffs on Mexican imports reduced availability in the US, while poor weather in Mexico and Florida cut harvests. The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz sharply raised energy and freight costs, increasing the cost of running processing plants and moving finished paste. Packaging also became more expensive, as aluminium and plastics faced supply constraints. In Q2, the focus shifted to India, where heatwave conditions from mid-April, with temperatures of 40°C to 45°C, damaged crops in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh. Although the Ministry of Agriculture projected 2025/26 tomato production at 21.46 million tonnes, uneven arrivals increased dependence on southern regions, raising transport costs and spoilage risks for processors. Supply improved toward the end of the quarter as harvesting picked up, easing raw material pressure. In the near term, tomato paste prices are likely to stay firm on high energy and packaging costs, though improving harvests may slow further increases.