Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Yellow Phosphorous in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Asian Yellow Phosphorus market observed fluctuating price trends. As the downstream industries registered feverish demands, queries from both domestic and international markets plummeted. Further, the declining freight and crude oil prices reduced the upstream cost pressure. Overall low hinging price trends were observed for Yellow Phosphorus. The spot prices went from around 4845 USD/MT in January to around 3232 USD/MT in June’23.

Europe

European Yellow Phosphorus market observed low swinging price trends in the European region during the said period. Market demands from downstream sectors remained bearish, pushing the prices down. But it was declining feedstock costs that primarily influenced the falling prices of Yellow Phosphorus. Market trends were still oscillating around a similar range in Q1 as the port congestions around European shores were keeping the freight charges up, but as Q2 approached and the freight issues were resolved, and thus, the prices kept plunging for the rest of the said period.

North America

Mixed price sentiments were observed for Yellow Phosphorus in the American market during the first two quarters of 2023. Prices varied in accordance with the demand patterns from the downstream fertilizer and EV sectors. The first months of each quarter saw rising demands pulling the prices up. However, the prices declined towards the end of the said period as demand declined, leading to stockpiling of products in the market.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the Yellow Phosphorus prices are expected to fluctuate on the lower end of the price curve, as the upstream costs are declining consistently. Further, the present inventories can support immediate product requirements from downstream sectors.

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Asian market observed a very mixed price pattern for Yellow Phosphorus in H2 2022. The reopening of industries after a series of covid mandated shutdowns caused the manufacturers to churn out products at a much faster rate. The downstream demand was uncertain causing turbulent pricing patterns in the Chinese domestic market. The prices of yellow phosphorus recorded dwindling trends given the falling demand and low upstream cost pressure. However, some positive fluctuations were seen towards the end of December’22, but overall, the prices kept towards the lower end.

Europe

Europe witnessed an oscillating but almost stagnant pricing pattern for yellow phosphorus in the said period. Recession-like conditions clouded the economic exchanges to a great degree, slowed down industrial production and curtailed the supply chains. The addendum of these factors led to demand destruction, thereby greatly impacting the market sentiments.

North America

Contrary to the Asian and European markets, yellow phosphorus prices hovered at the higher end of the scale in the US domestic market. As most of the supplies were import-dependent, the upstream costs remained high during Q3 and in early Q4. But during the mid-Q4 the present inventories were able to support the existing sluggish demand. Hence, the prices slid down towards the end of the fourth quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for yellow phosphorus are expected to stay oscillating and muted in the upcoming period. As the demand dynamics do not look very promising, the present inventories will be able to meet the requirements thereby stabilizing the market trends.

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend for the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The prices of yellow phosphorous remained firm in the Chinese domestic market. With the removal of zero-tolerance covid protocols by the government, the factories renewed production. However, the operating rates were not at the optimum levels given raised feedstock prices, unavailability of phosphate rock, expensive logistics and port congestions.

The depleted inventories and the increased demand from the downstream industries further supported the raised quotations from the sellers. The price of yellow phosphorous averaged 5792.38 USD/MT (Spot FD) in April in the Chinese domestic market. The price trends for yellow phosphorous stabilized slightly towards the end of said period owing to relaxed upstream costs averaging 5631.89 USD/MT (Spot FD) in June 2022.

Europe

With the European embargo on Russian oil coupled with the western sanctions against Russian exports, the prices of commodities surged in the international market. Russia and Belarus being major exports of phosphates and fertilizers in the world halted their precious supply to Europe. Hence, this massive gap in the market demand and supply caused the prices of yellow phosphorous to soar uncontrollably. The price of yellow phosphorous averaged 5970 USD/MT during the said period.

North America

The sanctions against Russian exports along with the Chinese government temporarily ban on fertilizer exports citing domestic reasons caused the prices of yellow phosphorous to surge in the US domestic market. The adverse droughts like climatic conditions prompted an excessive rise in the demand for fertilizers, hence the yellow phosphorous prices surged, averaging 5980 USD/MT towards the end of June 2022.

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The average price of yellow phosphorus was valued at 37000 RMB/MT in March 2022 in China.The yellow phosphorus market continued to expand. The trading mood was generally positive, but items were in short supply. The upstream phosphate rock was in high demand while the raw materials were in short supply. Inquiries from downstream were increasing, necessitating replenishment. Overall, market confidence was high, upstream and downstream support was robust, and new order transaction prices were higher.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the prices decreased. The market as a whole was generally deserted, the downstream wait-and-see attitude was strong, and the phosphorus yellow market was weak and dropping in volume. Generally, inquiries were made only on the basis of demand. Due to a decline in domestic production of yellow phosphorus, China's producers imported a certain amount from Vietnam. The increase in short-term demand increased the FOB prices in Vietnam.

After nearly two months of bullishness, yellow phosphorous prices in Vietnam finally stabilised. Prices for December were hovering around 7,500 USD/MT. The chemical’s market prospects in Vietnam improved significantly after Chinese authorities' production restrictions and stringent power curtailment measures reduced the country's phosphorus production to half of what it was last year. Prices in Vietnam increased by almost 70% in November compared to the beginning of the year. Yellow phosphorous prices reached new heights as a result of surging Chinese coal prices and low product stocks reported by Asian purchasers.

Europe

The European market for yellow phosphorus had some respite in the fourth quarter of 2021, as bids from Southeast Asian and Chinese providers relaxed as freight expenses were reduced and operational rates in China recovered significantly. However, the raw material market in Europe had been severely hit by the ongoing energy crisis, and Russian authorities' export quotas had created fears about a supply glut in the downstream fertiliser and batteries electrolytes industries. As a result of this ripple effect, offers on the European domestic market remained stable until the fourth quarter of 2021.

North America

The market in North America stabilised after surging to an all-time high at 7.33 USD/kg in October to 6.33 USD/kg by December end due to cost support from high freight rates. However, the domestic market in the United States remained buoyant due to seasonal demand from downstream fertilisers and EV batteries end-use sectors.

Whereas supplies were constrained by delayed delivery from Southeast Asia, and several authorities worldwide restricted the export of ammonia and phosphate-based fertilisers, the growing food price index boosted yellow phosphorus market sentiments in the US domestic market. In November, a prominent participant in the United States imported 240 tonnes of the chemical on a contractual basis at a price of 4700 USD/MT.

South America

China is a major supplier of fertilisers, supplying urea and phosphates to the agricultural sector, which are critical inputs for maize and soybean production in North and South America. Export restrictions are anticipated to further constrain supplies and raise prices, increasing farmers' input costs or forcing some to grow without fertilisers, thereby reducing yields.

Brazilian farmers are also suffering considerable cost pressures from growing input costs, which are being exacerbated by a mix of increased demand, rising inland freight rates, and supply shortages. Brazilian producers, particularly those who grow soybeans, are also concerned about the supply of glyphosate, with yellow phosphorus serving as a major component in the herbicide's manufacturing.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In January 2021, the average price increased by 2.01% to 16,900 RMB/MT. The domestic phosphate ore market was generally stable in terms of raw materials. Entrepreneurs primarily fulfilled pre-orders and tightened pricing operations. The price increase could be attributed to people's cautious reaction to the resurgence of the COVID-19 wave. Companies producing the chemical were averse to selling and insisted on high-priced operations.

Yellow phosphorous prices decreased the following March due to a lack of market demand. It was priced at 28,000 RMB/MT in September 2021. With the publication of the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission's Notification on Energy Consumption Control on September 11, the price skyrocketed to 65,000 RMB/MT.

This was due to the fact that its production in China is concentrated in the south-western provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Hubei which uses hydroelectric power generation as the primary source of electricity. The dry season in Yunnan was longer than previous years (December to May), due to which electricity generation was impacted.

In May 2021, Yunnan's power restrictions deteriorated again, affecting a sizable portion of the yellow phosphorus market, which was forced to reduce or stagger production. With this backdrop, yellow phosphorous prices began to noticeably increase in mid-May, intensifying market supply tensions as the market essentially lacked sufficient inventory to meet demand.

Europe

Due to the start of the spring season in Europe, demand for Diammonium Phosphate increased significantly in the agricultural sector. This increase in demand, both domestically and internationally, resulted in an increase in the price of yellow phosphorus, a critical raw material for DAP. In the second quarter of 2021, increased global demand for diammonium phosphate drove yellow phosphorous prices higher in Europe. Additionally, during Q3 2021, a surge in the global market for phosphoric acid impacted yellow phosphorous prices in Europe.

North America

Glyphosate prices in the United States have more than doubled since last year. Yellow phosphorus is a key component in the manufacture of glyphosate. Inflationary pressures were being driven by two factors. The first was Hurricane Ida, which hit Louisiana in August, a place which produces yellow phosphorus. The second factor was China's full-fledged energy crisis.

Yellow phosphorous prices increased exponentially from 3.6 USD/kg in January to 6.57 USD/kg by September end and further to 7.33 USD/Kg in October.

Latin America

The demand from downstream fertiliser producers was strong during the second quarter, as the domestic agriculture sector expanded in May and June. Additionally, significant demand for DAP from European and Asian countries increased worldwide phosphorus consumption, which aided in the rising trend of the product's pricing curve. Yellow phosphorous prices increased significantly in the third quarter of 2021 in the South American region, owing to persistent demand for agricultural products. The trend in the pricing of phosphate-based fertilisers was upward across the region, owing to the increase in the price of the chemical.

For the Year 2020

Asia

China is the world's largest producer of yellow phosphorus, with an installed capacity of 1.48 million tonnes. Additionally, it is the world's largest supplier. The production in China is concentrated in the South-Western provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Hubei. Yellow phosphorous prices decreased in March 2020. At the beginning of the month, the average price was 17,700 RMB/MT, while at the end of the month, the average price was 16,500 RMB/MT.

The price decreased by 6.78% during the month. This reduction was attributed to a lack of downstream demand. The phosphate market's operating rate was also low. In July 2020, the price of phosphorus yellow in the Yunnan-Guizhou area increased by 2.74%, to 15,000 RMB/MT, as industries resumed operations following a lengthy shutdown. Following that, prices remained relatively stable for a year.

Europe

The demand in Europe remained modest, despite the fact that it is a critical feedstock for the manufacture of fertilisers. Due to transportation constraints and the spread of COVID 19, agrochemical production remained minimal. Strong demand during the spring season resulted in increased imports and prices by the end of Q4 2020.

North America

The United States of America is the world's second largest producer of yellow phosphorus. Its prices increased in early Q4 2020 due to a supply shortage. The shortage was caused by a decrease in production as a result of hurricane damage in October.

In January the price stood at 2.55 USD/kg which was quite stable with a gradual decline during the first two quarters post which, the prices recovered for the next two quarters reaching a year-end value of 2.59 USD/kg.

Latin America

Phosphorous demand increased as a result of good agricultural production in the United States. With numerous government programmes aimed at reviving the struggling economy, demand remained significantly higher than producer forecasts. South American sales remained constant in Q4 2020, with product prices maintained at higher levels to offset recent losses. Traded volumes remained constant as the fertiliser market was impacted by fewer phosphoric acid exports due to port congestion near the quarter's end.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Yellow Phosphorus. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.