News and Articles

• China's copper cathode imports fell 14.24% month-on-month and 20.48% year-on-year to 210,200 tonnes in August 2026.
• Imports from the DRC and Chile, China's top two suppliers, both declined by roughly 28-42% year-on-year, largely attributed to US tariff-driven diversion of refined copper.
• Copper cathode exports rose 44.67% month-on-month to 50,400 tonnes on a favorable SHFE-LME price spread and LME backwardation.
• September imports are expected to rebound modestly as the COMEX-LME spread narrows and delayed cargoes arrive, but growth will remain limited by an unfavorable SHFE-LME ratio.
• September exports are expected to decline month-on-month as domestic spot premiums surge and smelter cathode inventories stay tight.

China's copper cathode market showed a pronounced imbalance in August, with imports falling sharply even as exports jumped, a pattern that traces directly back to the pull of US tariff expectations on global refined copper flows.

Customs data show China imported 210,200 tonnes of copper cathode in August, down 14.24% from July and down 20.48% from a year earlier. Cumulative imports for the first eight months of 2026 reached 1.88 million tonnes, a 15.22% year-on-year decline. SMM attributes the weak import figure primarily to what it calls a "siphoning effect" from the United States, where anticipation of tariffs on refined copper imports has been drawing material toward American warehouses and away from other destinations, including China.

The country breakdown reinforces that picture. Imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, China's largest cathode supplier, fell 27.66% month-on-month and 41.45% year-on-year to 69,300 tonnes. Imports from Chile dropped 28.92% month-on-month to 10,800 tonnes. The one bright spot came from intra-Asia flows: imports sourced from within China itself jumped more than 300% month-on-month and over 2,600% year-on-year to 47,000 tonnes, reflecting cargoes that moved out of LME warehouses and back into China when the SHFE-LME price ratio briefly created a favorable arbitrage window in mid-July. Typhoon-related port congestion across multiple Chinese regions in August also delayed some import arrivals, compounding the shortfall.

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On the export side, the dynamic ran in the opposite direction. Aside from re-exports destined for the US, an inverted SHFE-LME price ratio and steep backwardation on the LME opened export windows for Chinese cathode on multiple occasions from late July through August. China exported 50,400 tonnes of copper cathode in August, up 44.67% month-on-month and 37.02% year-on-year, though cumulative exports for the year remain down 10.57% at 409,000 tonnes.

Looking to September, SMM expects a partial reversal, but not a full recovery. The COMEX-LME price spread has narrowed, which should weaken the pull toward re-exports and encourage some import recovery, particularly as low domestic cathode inventories and peak-season downstream demand support buying interest. Previously delayed cargoes held up by port congestion are also expected to arrive. However, with the SHFE-LME price ratio remaining generally unfavorable for imports through the August-September period, SMM cautions that the scope for import growth will stay limited. On the export side, an intermittent window reopened in late September, but sharply rising domestic spot premiums and tight cathode inventories at smelters are expected to pull exports down month-on-month.

For buyers, the takeaway is that Chinese cathode availability is likely to stay constrained into the fourth quarter even as some import recovery materializes, with pricing increasingly sensitive to the evolving US tariff decision and the resulting cross-market price spreads.