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• India's steel exports to the EU are estimated at 2.8 million tonnes annually under the new tariff-rate quota regime.
• A country-specific quota of 1.9 million tonnes was secured based on the pending India-EU free trade agreement, higher than the 1.64 million tonnes cited in the EU's FTA text.
• Quota implementation has been front-loaded and effective since July 1, 2026, ahead of the FTA's formal signing.
• Shipments exceeding quota allocations face a 50% tariff; the EU's total annual duty-free steel quota is 18.3 million tonnes.
• All quota-eligible steel imports remain subject to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and India is expanding domestic CBAM verification capacity.

India has locked in an early estimate of how much steel it can ship duty-free to the European Union this year under the bloc's overhauled safeguard regime, a development with direct bearing on pricing and contract planning for exporters and their EU customers alike.

According to a commerce ministry official, the government's "initial conservative estimates" put India's annual steel exports to the EU at around 2.8 million tonnes. Of that, 1.9 million tonnes falls under a country-specific quota, split between 950,000 tonnes secured through the free trade agreement partner allocation and the remainder under the most-favoured-nation quota. The rest of the total is expected to come through the residual quota available to all exporters.

India was able to secure this allocation on the strength of the free trade agreement concluded with the EU in January, even though that agreement has not yet been formally signed or brought into force. The official said implementation of the steel quota commitments had been "front-loaded" and made effective from July 1, when the EU's new safeguard regime itself took effect.

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Under that regime, steel shipments within the tariff-rate quota enter the EU duty-free, while any volume above the quota is subject to a 50% tariff. The EU's total annual duty-free quota across all trading partners stands at 18.3 million tonnes, a sharp reduction from prior levels as Brussels tightens protections for its domestic steel industry against global overcapacity.

For Indian exporters, the country-specific allocation of 1.9 million tonnes is notably higher than the 1.64 million tonnes referenced in the FTA text the EU released earlier in September, giving shippers a larger buffer before duties kick in. India exported 3.8 million tonnes of steel worth $3.4 billion to the EU in the 2025-26 fiscal year, meaning the new quota structure could constrain volumes below recent historical levels unless exporters lean more heavily on the residual quota.

Compounding the cost calculus, all steel entering the EU within the quota regardless of category remains subject to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which prices the embedded carbon emissions of imported steel. India is working with the EU to build domestic verification capacity for CBAM compliance, with at least ten agencies under consideration and six applications already submitted, as exporters look to avoid depending on a limited pool of overseas verification providers. The government is also developing its own Carbon Credit Trading Scheme and discussing carbon pricing approaches with the EU.

For buyers of Indian steel in Europe, the quota split and CBAM overlay both mean landed costs will depend heavily on which sub-quota a given shipment falls under and how quickly domestic CBAM verification capacity comes online.