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Corrugated paper prices in China are experiencing a moderate upward trend, driven primarily by rising input costs and shifting supply dynamics.

Upstream, the cost of key raw materials is increasing. The price of wastepaper in Zhejiang province has continued its ascent, with the average purchase price for A-grade waste yellow board paper rising 2.39% since the first week of September. This trend is supported by a seasonal tightening in the supply of waste paper and increased demand from production plants gearing up for higher output, creating a market where supply is struggling to meet demand.

On the supply side, inventory pressure has successfully moved from paper mills downstream to packaging factories. Several major paper companies have announced scheduled shutdowns for maintenance during the upcoming National Day holiday, an action expected to tighten available supply. Furthermore, a significant reduction in market imports, influenced by recent tariff policies, has contributed to slightly tight supply in certain regions. Faced with these high raw material costs and thin profit margins, paper companies are demonstrating a strong willingness to raise prices.

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Demand currently remains supportive. Orders linked to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are still being fulfilled, providing downstream packaging factories with a steady flow of business. However, analysts anticipate that this support may wane once the seasonal demand is consumed and suspended supply comes back online, which could eventually ease the upward pressure on prices.

In the short term, the market is expected to maintain its upward momentum, fueled by the rise in wastepaper costs and a new wave of price hike notices from manufacturers. Downstream consumption continues to offer positive support, likely prompting cost-sensitive secondary factories to continue restocking inventories. The near-term outlook is for corrugated paper prices to remain stable with a potential for further increases.