Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

Low-density polyethylene market behavior in the Asian region was rather positive during the given span of Q1’24. Primarily, it was the soaring feedstock crude oil prices that pulled the market prices up for LDPE in the Asian markets. The Chinese market, however, was a little more stable compared to the Indian market. In China, the monthly average prices went from about 1272 USD/MT in January’24 to around 1287 USD/MT in March’24. The nature of growth was steady yet consistent.

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Suppliers were watching the market closely to ensure the positive growth of trade since demands were still modest. Similarly, in the Indian market, the monthly average spot prices went from approx.-1355 USD/MT in January to about 1445 USD/MT in March’24, imparting a 6% incline in prices in the Indian market. Along with the upstream costs, the downstream demands in the Indian market were also supportive throughout the said period.

Europe

LDPE prices surged during the first quarter in the European markets. Undertaking an approximate 20% incline, the monthly average prices here transitioned from about 1201 USD/MT (spot FD, Film)  to 1445 USD/MT from January to March of 2024. This growth came at the back of the oil crisis in the region. OPEC+ announced a rise in crude oil prices as Iraq and Russia declared a cut in production volumes. These surges drove the market sentiments for LDPE as the quarter also witnessed a rise in downstream demands from the flexible packaging industries. Overall, positive market sentiments were witnessed.

North America

Influenced by the hopeful performances in other global markets the LDPE prices experienced a rise in the American markets as well during the said duration. The production and processing costs were consistently inching higher with a rise in energy prices. And to suppliers’ respite, the consumer demands were also humble yet supportive of the market growth. So, even though the prices varied within closed limits during the said period, the market trajectory was inclined for the most period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the LDPE prices are likely to remain inclined for some time in the upcoming quarter. A positive demand dynamic looks motivating for global LDPE markets.

Low-Density Polyethylene Price Trend for October - December of 2023

Asia

The Low-Density Polyethylene prices experienced a subtle decline in the last quarter of 2023. Initially, the Asian market was modestly supported by geopolitical uncertainties such as rising global oil costs and the Federal Reserve interest rate decline that resulted in an industrial bloom, especially in China.

A little gain in packaging film industries and a decline in the operating rate of downstream products, especially in agricultural film because of the holiday demand, gave a window to these industries to buy Low-Density Polyethylene at elevated costs. However, as the year approached its end, the traders adjusted their offers in order to reduce the existing stockpile levels, and therefore, the Low-Density Polyethylene price trend constricted a little in the end phase.

Europe

The decline in Low-Density Polyethylene pricing in Europe can be attributed to lower feedstock cost of ethylene and slower-than-expected regional demand, which was, in turn, caused by a decrease in upstream naphtha and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Furthermore, the weak demand for Low Density Polyethylene is the result of difficult economic circumstances and cautious buying of the consumers. Additionally, attacks on commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea heightened security concerns in mid-December, leading to supply chain disruptions globally.

North America

The US market saw a decline in Low-Density Polyethylene prices as a result of weak demand from the construction and packaging industries. The feedstock ethylene was volatile towards the end of the quarter due to increased market activity prior to the holidays, while the upstream products, such as naphtha, saw a decrease in their costs due to lower crude oil prices. At the beginning of December, there were positive market activities and a consistent number of customer orders, but as the end of the year drew near, some customers cut back on their purchases, and as a result, the Low-Density Polyethylene prices found it difficult to sustain their momentum.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Low-Density Polyethylene are estimated to be dependent on the market dynamics of the downstream polymer industries. The present geopolitical conditions, such as the Israel-Hamas war and the disruption of the Red Sea trade route, are also estimated to play a significant role in dictating the low-density polyethylene prices.

Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

In the first phase of the third quarter, the price trend of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) declined gradually as the sluggish demand from the downstream industries and excessive supply of the material in the region resulted in poor market dynamics. Additionally, due to the slowing down of economic growth, the downstream industries struggled to maintain their momentum, adversely affecting the low-density polyethylene (LDPE) price trend. However, as the quarter progressed, the cost of upstream materials started to incline along with the industrial activities supporting the rise in the low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices.

Europe

The prices of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) showcased weak sentiments in the third quarter of 2023. The trend declined consistently in view of poor demand from the downstream packaging and polymer industries.

Due to the onset of the holiday season, the consumers also showed a relaxed appetite, which was evident in the falling trajectory of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) price graphs. In addition to this, the rates of production maintained their momentum while procurement of the material declined, resulting in an exponential surge in the level of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) inventories, hurting the overall dynamics of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices.

North America

The depreciating cost of feedstock and upstream materials prevented the growth of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) price trend during the first half of the third quarter. The decline in the prices was also a result of increasing interest rates that hampered the appetite of consumers and their spending habits. But soon, the trend reversed as the demand from the downstream industries inclined in the second half. In addition to this, the rise in cost of feedstock materials and disruptions in supply chains also supported the upwards journey of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) are expected to follow an inclining trajectory. This upswing in low-density polyethylene (LDPE) prices seems to be supported by increased procurement rates from the end-user sectors and the inclining cost of raw materials.

Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) prices in the Asian market showcased a fluctuating trend, mostly wavering on the lower side during the first half of 2023. In China, the spot prices of LDPE film grade fell from approximately 1317 USD/MT in January to about 1183 USD/MT in June’23.

With the Lunar New Year holidays and active hoarding sentiment from buyers, the prices rose marginally, around 1.8% in February. However, soon the momentum fizzled out as the factories started churning products at enhanced rates. The muted downstream demands and over-supplied inventories kept the LDPE price trend on a lowered trajectory. The cheap oil imports from Russia decreased the upstream cost pressure, further aiding the falling prices.

Europe

The European market mimicked the global declining price trend for LDPE. Bearish to no demands from downstream hardware and plastics industries were the major reason behind the decline. Geopolitical situations inflated the prices in early 2022, which altered the purchasing behaviors to more necessity centric reducing the demands from the end consumer. But as the upstream prices started normalizing, the demand didn’t increase simultaneously.

The existing inventories readily took care of the feeble demand in the market. LDPE prices fell below 1050 Euro/MT (FD Italy) in June’23, registering a three-year low rate. The suppliers offered the products at discounted rates to initiate product movement and empty out inventories; however, no parallel rise in demand was seen.

North America

The North American Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market behaved no differently than the international markets and registered a southward trend. As freight costs and energy prices stabilized, upstream costs for LDPE reduced, which, coupled with very little to no offtakes from the end consumers, destabilized the market sentiment.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) prices are expected to continue the same downhill trajectory and eventually get plateaued/ stagnant, given the current market outlook. The positive momentum from the downstream sectors will likely dictate the pricing fundamentals for the polymer market.

Low-Density Polyethylene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

In Q3 2022, the LDPE (Low-density Polyethylene) kept its downhill journey going as observed in the previous quarters. Low feedstock prices gave it the first push, while very consistently low downstream market demands kept the prices falling. H2 2022 witnessed a very poor performance by the LDPE price trend. Though several attempts were made in the middle of H2 but not much recovery happened even after the petrochemical prices went back up, no demand in the market did not let the price trend revive. All the major Asian markets including India and China remained low.

Europe

H2 2022 started no differently for Europe, a very clear decline in LDPE prices was visible. Constant low market demands being the reason for the downfall. However, as the middle of Q4 approached stocks started declining despite low demand, the severe energy crisis and the economic slowdown in Europe hiked production and movement costs, pushing up the price trend. Demands kept low without drifting, but the heightened upstream costs pushed the price trend up as the H2 came to an end.

North America

American market also replicated the global falling price trend for LDPE. Market demands kept persistently low, and unlike the European market rise in upstream production costs could not help the LDPE market much here. LDPE prices kept in the slump in H2 2022.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, the market trend do not look promising for the LDPE market at all. Downstream demand will drive the market, but global economic slowdown and manufacturing cuts make it look difficult for demand to catch up.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The soaring prices of crude oil hampered the growth of the Asian petrochemical industry. The falling prices of feedstock ethylene and muted off-season demand from the downstream polyester and plastic sectors caused the LDPE market to crash in Asia.

Towards the start of this quarter, LDPE prices averaged 1210-1220 USD/MT CFR Far East Asia and 1240-1280 USD/MT CFR South Asia. In the Chinese market, per ton price of LDPE film averaged 1470-1510 USD. In the Indian domestic arena, they were in the range of 1650-1710 USD/MT.

Europe

In line with its Asian counterpart, the price trend of LDPE remained towards the weaker end amid weak demands and tightened supply. The prices for LDPE film went from 2225 EUR/MT in April 2022 to 1893 EUR/MT in June 2022. The prices of LDPE general purpose went from 2246 EUR/MT in April 2022 to 1893 EUR/MT in June 2022.

North America

Initially, LDPE prices remained firm due to the steady demand from the downstream sectors, with prices averaging around 1.04 USD/lb. However, the prices fell sharply due to the rippling effects of the global market averaging around 0.89/lb.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of Low-density polyethylene will likely decline given the lowered market transactions. The falling demand from the packaging and film industries is causing manufacturers to continuously lower their prices in order to make room for new production.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The PE market in China remained rangebound in January 2022 with limited fluctuations. LLDPE prices varied from 8622-8761 RMB/MT in China. In February, the prices rose sharply to 9248 RMB/MT but later dropped to 8830 RMB/MT by the end of the month.

In the beginning of March 2022, the PE market was weak with limited support from cost side amid falling crude oil prices even though the downstream industry remained enthusiastic. By the end of the quarter, the PE spot prices rose steadily, with ex-factory prices rising by 50-150 RMB/MT. LDPE prices in China by the end of Q1 2022 were 11,750 RMB/MT.

Europe

Following constant feedstock costs and sluggish demand, polyethylene and polypropylene prices rolled over in January. Polyethylene prices rose less than the 67.5 EUR/MT increase in feedstock costs in February. L/LDPE prices increased by 30-35 EUR/MT.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The Asian market saw the inverse of the North American pattern, with average prices increasing in Q4 from Q3 levels, while film grade costs jumped by about 10% in China. Supply-side constraints remained in Q4, as freight prices from Europe, the United States of America, and the Middle East to East Asia reached record levels during the October and November.

India, too, showed a considerable increase in average costs compared to Q3 levels. During Q4 examinations, a substantial rise of 15% in the LDPE adhesive film grade was found. India was impacted by coal shortages at the same era, driving up energy costs. Although RIL, Opal, and GAIL began adjusting prices lower in December, the price cuts had little effect in the fourth quarter, as demand outpaced supply throughout the quarter.

Europe

Similar to the US market, the European market showed a small decline in LDPE pricing during Q4 of FY21 compared to Q3 levels. The average price of film grade polymer was 2.3% lower in Q4 than in Q3. Since the final week of November FY21, demand decreased as a result of the holiday season.

This time around, the natural gas market's abnormal trajectory had a direct influence on production levels, since prices were in a downward trend for the bulk of Q4 and only began to reverse in the second week of December. This resulted in exporting nations such as the Netherlands and Belgium maintain their current production levels. However, the fresh pandemic wave damaged their export base, as East Asia returned to lockdown mode in the last weeks of Q4, substantially lowering LDPE prices.

North America

As a consequence of supply constraints during the post-deep freeze era in the United States, shipments from Northeast Asia were shifted to Europe and the domestic market in an effort to maintain market stability. However, output had recovered by early to mid-October, resulting in a surplus on the local market. Demand from the packaging industry provided some breathing room for the markets, but the return of strict lockdowns and quarantine protocols in China and Northeast Asia forced companies, to drastically cut their prices due to a lack of overseas demand.

Latin America

Demand for polyethylene in Latin America was huge and growing continuously. Regional demand was more than 7 MMT per year and was predicted to climb 8.6 MMT. The Latin American PE sector is projected to continue to be directed by worldwide prices, especially affected by the US market, since this will continue to be the standard for regional producers in deciding pricing.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In Q3 2021, the domestic LDPE prices increased in Asia. Since August, the pricing trend continued to climb, backed by sustained growth in consumer demand amidst tight regional supply. A surge in delta variation instances affected the supply chain with several nations in Q3, resulting in unpredictable pricing. In India, demand remained strong throughout the quarter, with prices increasing from 1090 USD/MT to 1206 USD/MT. Indian producers originally saw reasonable demand for the majority of resins, including LDPE.

Later, as a result of the abrupt increase in pandemic cases and the adoption of movement restrictions, demand in the packaging industry decreased. As a result of the large inventory in India, demand remained negative throughout the quarter, and LDPE prices fell from 1808 USD/MT to 1534 USD/MT for adhesive film grade in April-June.

Further, the demand for LDPE remained weak to moderate, while supply remained limited due to reduced imports. Prices changed regularly during the quarter, owing to the unpredictability of the demand-supply scenario. In February, the average price of LDPE film grade in India remained at 1608 USD/MT.

Europe

Demand for LDPE was modestly positive in Europe, although prices remained persistently high due to reduced imports and limited supply. Imports from the United States were low owing to the region's manufacturing activities being hampered by a severe winter storm. Reduced imports and increased domestic and worldwide demand resulted in a sharp increase in prices.

Throughout the first part of the quarter, Europe witnessed a severe supply shortage of numerous polymer resins, resulting in a substantial increase in the price of LDPE across the area. This supply bottleneck was exacerbated by decreased import activity from the United States and Asia for a variety of reasons.

In the third quarter, production increased as a result of the ongoing repair of numerous units. PE prices reached an all-time high earlier in 2021 as a result of catastrophic weather conditions in the US Gulf, which resulted in the loss of significant amounts of ethylene and PE capacity, hence reducing both supply and demand. LDPE prices across Europe deteriorated as a result of the erratic market environment and were finally fixed in September at 2055 USD/MT.

North America

During Q1 2021, the North American market saw strong demand from both domestic and foreign markets. Due to the winter storm, scarcity of the feedstock ethylene was observed. As a result of this scarcity, numerous factories were obliged to shut down production and increase regional offerings. Prices increased to a two-year high during this period. In March, the price of film grade FOB Texas surpassed 1800 USD/MT.

The pandemic's recovery boosted the market for North American resin makers in the second quarter. Demand remained robust enough to support LDPE prices, while also satisfying existing inquiries.

ExxonMobil, Equistar, and Chevron Phillips hiked their pricing by 110 USD/MT in May to boost profits in the face of higher demand and rising upstream and manufacturing costs. As a result, an effective increase in pricing was noted throughout Q2 2021, with prices hovering at 1955 USD/MT for film grade in the United States of America by the end of June 2021.

During the third quarter of 2021, domestic polymer supplies increased dramatically, resulting in a small drop in the pricing in North America. Demand from downstream sectors remained robust in Q3, as industry players noted that consumer demand for the product has increased. Demand-wise, the construction and packaging sectors absorbed good quantities during the quarter. The supply of LDPE improved in the last weeks of the third quarter. LDPE Film Grade was last evaluated at a price of 1850 USD/MT.

Latin America

After a year of price rise, the Brazilian plastics sector saw the first symptoms of demand faltering. Some resin buyers anticipated Braskem to announce April price increases, after February price increases of 230 USD/MT for PE and 320 USD/MT for all PE grades in March. Local customers feared that they may have to seek imported material if PE prices continued to surge in April. Imports, on the other hand, were difficult to reach due to a sharp depreciation of the local currency and scarcity of PE in the US.

For the Year 2020

Asia

As packaging and pipe demand climbed, reaching a seasonal peak in September and October, the market continued to improve, with revenues exceeding pre-lockdown levels. Several turnarounds in North Asia and the Middle East, on the other hand, maintained the market under supply-side pressure. The market improved significantly in the third quarter, owing to robust demand from downstream industries, as customers who had previously refrained from acquiring cargoes due to demand interruptions caused by coronavirus re-entered the market.

Prices in East Asia were assessed at 1380 USD/MT CFR levels, while those in South-East Asia were assessed at 1400 USD/MT CFR levels, a week on week increase of 160 USD/MT. In India, LDPE prices were trading at 1270 USD/MT CFR, a significant increase of 100 USD/MT over the previous week. In Bangladesh, prices were evaluated at 1380 USD/MT CFR, a huge 170 USD/MT rise week on week.

In India's local markets, price patterns remained optimistic, owing to limited regional product supply, bullish demand trend, and a sharp increase in import offers from foreign suppliers. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) increased the price of LDPE Extrusion Coating by 6 INR/kg basic, while all other grades were increased by 5 INR/kg basic, effective December 1, 2020. LDPE prices in Sri Lanka were estimated at USD 1350/mt CFR, up USD 130/mt from the previous week. In Pakistan, prices were evaluated at USD 1380/mt, a USD 150/mt increase week on week.

Europe

Since March 2020, demand for LDPE and LLDPE bottles, stand-up pouches, and other dispensing forms for liquid soaps, sanitizers, and disinfectants increased significantly. Additionally, the ongoing epidemic raised demand for top handle and side handle containers for chemical storage, such as sodium hypochlorite, a primary disinfectant. While the economic consequences were felt across the EU, they were perceived differently by different areas and demographic groups. Europe's LDPE and LLDPE market was worth $10.4 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach $16.8 billion by 2027.

North America

The region's export potential was harmed by the material's scarcity. Numerous unexpected turnaround events throughout the US Gulf Coast as a result of Hurricane Laura resulted in a supply constraint during a period of soaring demand. The demand forecast remained favorable, with a strong rebound predicted in the electronics sector, followed by further growth in packaging demand as consumers became more receptive to home delivery of food as a result of their changed lifestyles following the coronavirus.

Latin America

Low-density polyethylene climbed 29.3% since January, when it reached its 2020 low. LDPE price were 1190 USD/MT on September 30th, the highest price since October 2018. Braskem stated that in light of price hikes, prices increased by 75 USD/MT in July.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of LDPE (Low Density Polyethylene). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.