Phosphoric Acid Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Phosphoric Acid in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Phosphoric Acid Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The price trend for phosphoric acid registered mixed trajectories during the final quarter of 2023. During the initial months of the quarter, the market remained consolidated owing to the heightened prices of feedstock phosphate rock as the supply of low-priced phosphate rock in the market was constricted. Though the prices remained positive during November '23 but were less compared to the previous year's value, the phosphoric acid prices registered a 16.17% Y-O-Y decline.

Phosphoric Acid Price Chart

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However, during the month of December, the market sentiments turned bleak, and the prices fell towards the end of the quarter. The tight supply, coupled with the feeble demand from the downstream sector, was a cause of concern for the suppliers. Hence, as a result the stockiest were forced to discount their market prices in order to ensure positive product movement and to empty out the inventories to vacate space for new production.

Europe

In line with its Asian counterpart, the price trend for phosphoric acid recorded positive numbers till November and finally fell during the last month of the quarter, i.e., December '23. The downfall was the result of a decline in new orders and low to moderate demands from the water treatment and fertilizer industries. Further, the declining prices in the key exporting nations affected the price trend in the domestic European market. The phosphoric acid prices averaged around 1467 USD/MT (75%, CIF, United Kingdom) during December '23.
North America

The US domestic market registered sluggish sentiment despite the uptick in the prices of feedstock phosphate rock and phosphate-based fertilizers. The increased upstream costs, coupled with low downstream demands and ample product in the market, affected the profit margins of the traders. Furthermore, the tricky situation owing to the Panama Canal drought complicated the logistics and transportation. Hence, all the above mentioned factors reinforced the negative outlook of the phosphoric acid market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Phosphoric Acid are likely to oscillate further in the coming months. The prices of phosphate rock are anticipated to decline, which in turn will decrease the upstream cost pressure, aiding the traders' sentiments and downstream demands.

Phosphoric Acid Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

The Asian countries witnessed a noticeable decline in the inventory level as the demand for phosphoric acid increased by several folds. The main contributor to this rise in the procurement rates of phosphoric acid was the agriculture and fertilizer sector. Further, the manufacturers faced several disruptions in the market that decreased the efficiency of the supply chains and eventually caused the prices of phosphoric acid to move northwards.

Europe

The European traders enjoyed an upswing in the cost of phosphoric acid throughout the third quarter of 2023. The inclining trajectory of the phosphoric acid price graph was a consequence of the limited availability of the product in the region, while its trading activities remained strong throughout the quarter.

In view of the healthy demand for phosphoric acid, the manufacturers looked forward to increasing their production rates, supporting the overall growth of phosphoric acid price trend. In addition to this, the surge in the cost of feedstock materials and the number of bulk orders also played a significant role in keeping the prices in the positive zone.

North America

In North America, the incline in the phosphoric acid price trend was gradual rather than steep, as seen in the European and Asia Pacific countries. The cause of this inclination was the rise in the cost of production as the prices of feedstock materials and crude oil soared during the third quarter of 2023. Amid this rising demand, the inventory stocks of phosphoric acid were limited, and thus, the traders had room to increase their profit margins, giving the phosphoric acid price graphs its required momentum.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Phosphoric Acid are estimated to continue their upward journey as the cost of feedstocks and rise in rates of procurement from the downstream fertilizer sector seem to be supporting the phosphoric acid prices.

Phosphoric Acid Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Phosphoric Acid had a stable start at the beginning of the first quarter with a stable supply–demand dynamic. But as the inventories kept getting utilized and the demands stayed steady, the prices started picking up at the shift of quarters.

The prices increased by almost 19% in the Indian domestic market by the beginning of the second quarter. But, as the suppliers fuelled up production to procure these improved profit margins, the stocks again started piling up because of oversupply, whereas the demands remained steady, so the market momentum again shifted south. And price trend remained on these sliding curves for the rest of the second quarter.

Europe

The European market witnessed some market normalization in the discussed time frame. Previously, the prices had risen to unsustainable highs in the previous couple of quarters because of the heightened crude oil prices and inflation owed to the Russia – Ukraine conflict, which disturbed the supply chains and hampered global energy security. So, Phosphoric Acid prices slid consistently in the first half of 2023 as the production and upstream costs reduced. Prices in the United Kingdom went from about 1765 UDS/MT (CIF, 75%) in January 2023 to around 1500 USD/MT (CIF, 75%) in June 2023, with an approximate declination of about 15% within the discussed time limit.

North America

The North American market almost replicated the sliding trend of the European Phosphoric Acid market as the prices remained on a downhill trajectory throughout the first half of 2023. Since the inventories were high, the downstream demands remained limited.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Phosphoric Acid prices are expected to continue to slide in the upcoming months owing to low-cost support, high inventories, and low upstream costs.

Phosphoric Acid Price Trend for the Year 2022

Asia

For the Asian market, the phosphoric acid price trend started with an inconclusive inclination. But as the year-end approached the prices showed a downward trajectory. The year 2022 started with a void in the fertilizer market because of the Russia- Ukraine conflict. So, the countries like China constricted exports initially but demands sustained so the prices went high. But around Q3 the raw material prices had started falling and market demand too took a plunge. This resulted in an overall downward trajectory of phosphoric acid prices towards the end of 2022.

Europe

The Phosphoric Acid price trend for the European market had a mixed run during H2, 2022. Initially, curtailed supply chains and good demands from downstream markets kept a fair market sentiment. However, as the year-end approached a restoration of supply chains increased imports filling up the stocks. Whereas the downstream demands started reducing shifting the overall Phosphoric Acid price trend to the lower end for the European market.

North America

Since the beginning of the year 2022, the Chinese zero covid policy and rising inflation due to Russia – Ukraine conflict remained the biggest detrimental factors for industrial price trend. For phosphoric acid, too, Russian, and Ukrainian exports were off the market and China curbed the supply chains, so around the middle of the year, an upward inclination in price trend was certain because food prices had taken a major hike fertilizer was essential to increase food production. But heading towards Q4 phosphoric acid supplies returned to the market and demand started subsiding a little bit, overall, the supply-demand dynamics improved resulting in an eventual normalization of price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the phosphoric acid price trend are going to be swinging at the lower end. As the phosphoric acid market is enriched with sufficient supplies, demand is going to be the driving factor for phosphoric acid price trend.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In October, the market remained mostly constant, with some modest decreases in quotations based on their own inventory situation. There were few companies quoting in the market on the first day following the holiday, but the price of the raw material phosphorus yellow was momentarily steady, and most companies had no quotations. Because there was some replenishment demand in the downstream, phosphoric acid prices remained high.

North America

The market in North America remained consolidated in the fourth quarter of 2021, with manufacturer offers fluctuating throughout the period. The main cause for this market shift can be linked to the low reliance on Chinese suppliers for fertiliser exports as well as enough domestic production. The North American demand outlook was bolstered by a paradigm change in the chemical’s market trend from fertilisers to electric vehicles. As a result, the FOB USA quarterly average was set at 1650 USD/MT at the end of the quarter.

Middle East and Africa

Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP), a Moroccan producer, agreed to 1,330 USD/MT CFR phosphoric acid contracts with its joint venture partners for Q4 delivery to India. The price was up 70 USD/MT from the third quarter's CFR price of 1,160 USD/MT, making it the sixth increase since WHO designated COVID-19 a pandemic.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Due to the poor performance of the Asian fertiliser sector during this time, local demand for the chemical in the region remained low. Despite increased demand from European countries, the buying trend in the region remained strong. To guarantee larger profits, several manufacturers chose to export rather than keep it for the home market. The closure of the Suez Canal had an influence on regional trade. Several shipments of the chemical were delayed during this time. Phosphoric acid prices grew by 4.8% in the Indian market from January to March.

The price of yellow phosphorus rose in July, owing to electricity rationing in Yunnan, due to which phosphoric acid prices also increased. In August, demand for the chemical in India remained high, backed by strong offtakes from domestic DAP factories, while supply remained insufficient to meet demand.

Its scarcity caused a spike in the overall price of various phosphate fertilisers in India, where the government was attempting to limit downstream fertiliser prices to relieve home farmers of the burden. In the third quarter of 2021, the (fertiliser grade 51.75%) price was recorded at 1220 USD/MT.

Europe

Due to the spring season, Europe's domestic fertiliser sector saw a reasonable demand, while domestic supplies remained insufficient to meet overall domestic demand. As a result, import demand in the region remained high, causing phosphoric acid prices to effectively climb. Meanwhile, a severe cold spell in the United States decreased the availability of phosphoric acid in the region, prompting traders to shift their reliance from the United States to Asian countries.

The price increased in key European countries the second quarter, owing to strong demand from the downstream fertiliser business. Following severe weather conditions in the previous quarter, Europe's agrochemicals sector showed signs of recovery. The price of the chemical rose as a result of the increased demand from fertiliser makers. Furthermore, as a result of the global price increase, cargoes arriving in Europe from Asia were also quoted high, exacerbating the overprice problem.

North America

During Q1 2021, freezing weather disrupted production activities across the US Gulf, resulting in a large spike in phosphoric acid costs. Due to freezing weather and poor crops, demand from the fertiliser sector remained low over the period. Meanwhile, throughout the spring season, export demand from European countries was high, despite the fact that trading activity was largely halted. Phosphoric acid prices in the United States increased from 615 USD/MT in January 2021 to 645 USD/MT in March 2021. They rose across North America, owing to strong demand from both the domestic and worldwide markets.

Demand from downstream fertiliser manufacturers was strong throughout the quarter, as the domestic farming sector picked up steam in May and June. Furthermore, high DAP demand from European and Asian countries pushed up worldwide demand, supporting the pricing curve's upward trajectory. Phosphoric acid prices peaked in the first week of June, hovering about 690 USD/MT in the United States.

For the Year 2020

Asia

Due to its usage in the production of phosphate fertilisers, the chemical’s demand in the Asian market from countries such as China and India remained consistent in Q4. A major player reported increased operating rates at its White Phosphoric Acid (WPA) factory in China, with commercial food-grade acid production expected to begin by the end of Q1 2021.

The regional offers were kept in an appropriate range due to pent-up demand from the textile and sugar sectors mills. The price of phosphorus remained consistent, ensuring stable phosphoric acid prices. In Q4 of 2020, Indian businesses reported increased utilization of the chemical in a variety of industrial applications, with local pricing hovering around 713 USD/MT.

Europe

In Europe, the prognosis for phosphoric acid had been rather stable. Players reported significant demand in the European region, with consumers aggressively replenishing to make purchases for the spring season, hence phosphoric acid prices were raised. Because the fertiliser industry was the least affected by the pandemic, its large usage in the production of phosphate fertilisers raised demand in Q4 of 2020. Imports of WPA were found to be high, owing to a significant improvement in food grade phosphates and stable industrial salts.

North America

The demand for the chemical increased as crop yield in the United States improved. It remained significantly above producer projections despite multiple government attempts to bolster the stressed economy. In the fourth quarter of 2020, North American phosphoric acid sales were stable, with product prices maintained at higher levels to offset prior losses. The fertiliser market was impacted by fewer exports of the chemical, as well as port-related congestions, which were heard towards the end of the quarter.

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