Soda Ash Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Soda Ash in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Soda Ash Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Asian Soda Ash market observed very mixed price sentiments in the first half of 2023. As the after-effects of Covid 19 pandemic started fading in the Chinese market, a stable supply-demand dynamic was observed in the Soda Ash market. Low but consistent offtakes resulted in almost stagnant price trends wavering at the lower end.

The spot prices of Soda Ash (dense) averaged around 276 USD/MT in June’23. Similarly in the Indian Soda Ash market, an almost stagnant behaviour was seen. Tata Chemicals cut down its Soda Ash prices by 3-4% in April’23 to counter the falling prices in the Chinese market and the substantial capacity additions in the Inner Mongolia region from May’23. The spot prices of soda ash averaged around 382 USD/MT in June’23 in the Indian domestic markets.

Europe

In a similar impression to the Asian market, Soda Ash price trends in the European market muted. Amid the veil of rising inflation, no positive product movement occurred in the European market.  The soda ash prices averaged around 373 USD/MT (CIF, UK) during the first four months and thereupon again continued the downward trajectory given the feeble demands and over-supplied inventories.

North America

The North American market behaved no differently from the global pricing outlook. The production costs stabilized as the freight problems and the energy costs improved. Hence, the market mostly remained oversupplied, which eliminated the supply’s influence over the Soda Ash market in the USA. Therefore, the market was governed by the demands of the end consumer sector. Bearish yet consistent demands called for almost stagnant price patterns in H1’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Soda Ash prices are expected to remain unsettled in the coming quarter given the current pricing fundamentals. The fluctuating downstream demand from glass and metallurgical refining industries will continue to be the determining factor for Soda Ash price trends.

Soda Ash Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The soda ash market was stable in the third quarter, however, the prices declined in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, the prices remained afloat due to the disruptions in the supply chains between China and South Korea which in turn led to the shortage of the product in the market. This along with the incline in the prices of energy production and inflation rates caused the soda ash prices to incline in the region.

The inclining trend was not followed in the fourth quarter as the prices fell due to weak domestic demand and ample supply in the area. The depreciation of Asian currencies against the US dollar further aided the decline in the prices of soda ash. The prices recovered a little in December as the demand from the glass manufacturing industry rose.

Europe

The rising inflation and soaring energy prices drove the price trends for soda ash to incline in the third quarter. However, the prices plunged in the fourth quarter as the demand from the glass manufacturers decreased. The high cost of production along with the rising energy crisis and low production of derived products further aided the declining trend in the prices of soda ash. The rise in uncertainties in the market and reduced export rates fueled the downward trajectory of the prices.

North America

In the US domestic market, the price trend of soda ash inclined in the third quarter of 2022 with a significant projection in September as the domestic automotive glass manufacturing industries increased their offtakes. The rising trajectory was only limited till the third quarter as the fourth quarter did not support this incline. The price trend of soda ash plunged due to a decline in domestic offers and lower export rates. Further, with the upsurge in energy costs and low downstream production, the market conditions were not in favour of the soda ash prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trends for soda ash are expected to decline in the upcoming quarter. The major factors aiding this trend will be the uncertainties in the global market, reduced offtakes from the end-user market, and an overall slowdown in the world’s economy.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The value of the Asia-Pacific market for the chemical fluctuated over Q2 of 2022. Despite a big drop in soda ash prices in April, the market didn't alter. Since local supply and demand were well balanced, its market views moved only slightly from steady to narrowly defined ranges.

Even while import inquiries slightly increased due to favourable demand in the detergent and glass industries, the supply of soda ash did not have a substantial impact on soda ash prices. Overall, supply and demand dynamics changed very little after April, showing hardly any changes in the market's perception of the chemical.

North America

Throughout Q2 of 2022, market price of the chemical in North America fluctuated. Despite a considerable decline in the price of soda ash in April, the market was mostly unchanged. As local demand and supply matched each other well, market perceptions of the chemical fluctuated within a stable to limited range. Overall, following April, the dynamics of supply and demand changed relatively slightly, showing hardly any changes in the market's perception of the chemical.

Europe

During the second quarter, the market value of the chemical changed in Europe. Although soda ash prices fell significantly in April, the market as a whole held constant. Because local demand and supply matched well, perceptions of the chemical in the local market fluctuated within a stable and confined range. The supply had little effect on soda ash prices, despite a little rise in import inquiries because of favourable demand in the detergent and glass industries.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices for soda ash are anticipated to shoot significantly. The primary reasons for the high price dynamics of soda ash can be chalked to rigorous automotive demand globally. Moreover, the major fuel could be seen in the form of shorting inventory.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Despite a steady increase in market activity in the first quarter, demand for soda ash in the Asia Pacific region remained strong. According to sources, there have been a series of turnarounds in China as a result of the country's Spring Festival. As a result of China's turnarounds, the Asian market experienced a supply shortage. Despite the fact that demand for soda ash from the construction and solar sectors remained sluggish in China, prices rose in tandem with the worldwide demand surge on the international market.

Soda Ash factories in China have been raising their operating rates week over week, in keeping with the worldwide demand trend. However, the overall supply was below the planned level due to several big manufacturers doing maintenance in February. The shutdown of Zhonguan Chemicals' and Jiangsu Shilian's Soda Ash plants in February had a negative influence on the supplies in China and on the international market.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

At the end of December, there was a rise in soda ash prices in China due to the dual control policy that restricts production activities. As a result, there was a rise in demand due to the ease of restrictions and economies were recovering. In India, soda ash prices rose due to the festive season and excess use for cleaning and construction applications. The supply and demand gap narrowed at the end of the year, which also caused lower prices. The price fluctuated from 341 USD to 350 USD/MT ex-Chennai while China's rates were between 450 and 450 USD/MT FOB Lianyuangang.

Europe

Soda ash prices in Europe fluctuated in a stable-to-firm range, owing to sustained demand from downstream detergents and the building industry. In early Q4, lower operating rates due to weather variables and high energy prices boosted soda ash prices in Europe. In December, availability increased slightly, with some units increasing their running rates. Traders continued to buy at a steady pace despite strong demand. In December, light soda ash prices were estimated to be around 300 USD/MT FOB Stassfurt (Germany).

North America

A bit of fluctuation was seen in the market for soda ash, but with fulfilling the regional demands successfully. Soda ash prices were not affected in the last quarter even though the import enquiries were there due to the rise in demand for detergent and glass industry products.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The soda ash industry, which was impacted by COVID in 2020, recovered in the first three quarters. Because of the government and private sector's strong investments in renewable energy, the demand was particularly affected by solar applications. Flat glass demand was seen, as was the demand for soda ash too. In India, there was an increase of 110% in the price in the first three quarters. In China, stocks were up by 22% in September. The post-covid soda ash industry bounced back, as per Tata Chemicals officials. Soda ash prices remained constant for three quarters at 312 USD/MT.

Europe

The European market for soda ash was balanced in the first quarter. There was a transportation lag on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp route amid the cold weather. The Belgian market recovered in the second quarter after lifting restrictions on COVID. In the third quarter, a sudden rise in the price of electricity affected its overall production cost.

There was a mixed trend observed in the prices of raw materials, which led to very thin profit for regional manufactures. Demand remained constant for three quarters from the downstream and glass and detergent industries. Soda ash prices in Germany were 266 USD/MT FOB Stassfurt at the end of September.

North America

In early quarters, there was a huge demand for the compound in the downstream industry. There was an effect of freezing weather that hit the supply chain, resulting in major shutdowns in Texas like the Olin Group for weeks. There was no effect on prices in the first quarter. The operating rates recovered after the shutdown due to freezing weather. On a monthly basis, the chloride industry decreased by 6%.

The agreement between Tata chemicals and ANSAC ended in January due to constraints in the supply chain of the region. Demand became high due to the excess consumption of soaps and detergents. The rates of shipping had increased, so soda ash prices rose by 25 USD/MT. Demand was very high in Q3 due to the climate calamities in the US Gulf region.

For the Year 2020

Asia

The market was initially affected due to COVID and lower consumption by chemical industries. In the Asia-Pacific region, soda ash prices were affected by rising construction and developing nations. China and India were the main consumers of the product due to its major use in air purification and water softening. In the 2020 final quarter, the price rose by 972.5 RMB/MT (Rs 11,150) to 2312 RMB/MT (Rs 26,475). Soda ash is heavily used in glass production. The recovery was going on after the hit of COVID in all application sectors.

Europe

In 2020, the EU market grew due to the increased use of soda ash in the glass industry. It was imported by major EU countries such as France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the UK. Due to environmental concerns and government regulation, industries demand wastewater treatment.

There was a little change in pricing that was seen in the market in the third quarter. The Roman unit in Govera had suspended operations and affected its overall supply. Some of the players saw their margins squeezed due to weak demand across the EU, and they were hardly seeing any improvement in demand for the next quarter. During 2020, the market in the United Kingdom rose only once, to 254 USD/MT in February, and the rest of the year was 224 USD/MT.

North America

Demand was high in the glass industry during 2020, which also increased the demand for the inorganic compound which increased its production in the US. In 2020, the market was calculated at USD 2,749.24 million. Many producers were reported to be operating at very low capacities in order to manage inventory levels.

The genesis alkali was on hold for three quarters of the trona-based plants, consequently reducing the export. There was a rise in demand that was seen for some exceptional months. The overall demand was high due to the economic fallout. In the United States, soda ash prices were 202 USD/MT in January and 209 USD/MT in February, which declined to 201 USD/MT in March.

Latin America

The rapid spread of coronavirus had a significant impact on Latin American economies, with big markets locked up until 2020. The consumer market had begun to demonstrate zero interest in purchasing soda ash materials as a result of this massive lockout. One of the industry's key challenges was the shutdown of all means of domestic transportation within the countries. In addition, the temporary shutdown of large segments of the construction and automotive industries in several countries due to an increase in COVID-19 cases, slowed the market growth significantly.

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