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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest report, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, forecasts 5.5 billion bushels of corn for ethanol production in 2024-25, a slight increase from 5.478 billion bushels in 2023-24 and 5.176 billion bushels in 2022-23.

The season-average corn price forecast remains unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. The USDA also left its estimates for planted area and harvested area steady at 90.6 million acres and 82.9 million acres, respectively, with an average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre.

Changes in global trade flows for 2024-25 include lower export projections for Brazil and South Africa, while Argentina's exports have been revised upward. On the import side, China and Taiwan's demand projections have been lowered, whereas Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt are expected to increase imports.

On the global front, production expectations have been raised for India, Russia, and Ukraine, driven by favorable monsoon conditions, revised government data, and updated harvest figures. However, these gains are partially offset by lower forecasts in South Africa and Mexico, where reductions in planted area and weaker winter yields impact overall output.

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Foreign corn ending stocks are now lower, mainly due to reductions in China and Argentina, though Russia and India are anticipated to hold more inventory. The global ending stocks projection stands at 288.9 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from prior estimates.