News and Articles

• Air France-KLM said on June 3 that jet fuel supply is secure for the July through August peak travel season at its French and Dutch hubs
• Lufthansa reported no signs of supply risk at its six European hubs, while Ryanair said supply appears secure until September and Jet2 expects no summer disruption
• European jet fuel prices have held below $1,200 a tonne for almost two weeks, still roughly 50 percent above pre-war levels
• IATA's weekly fuel price index showed the global average jet fuel price down 5.1 percent week on week to $138.86 a barrel in its latest reading
• The North West Europe jet crack spread peaked above $121 a barrel against a historical norm of roughly $30
• US Gulf Coast jet fuel prices climbed from about $2.26 a gallon in February to $3.93 a gallon in April before easing through May and June
• Higher regional refinery output, inventory drawdowns and imports from the United States and Nigeria have helped offset lost Middle Eastern supply

Air France-KLM said on June 3 that jet fuel supply is secure for the peak summer travel season, becoming the latest European carrier to signal stable availability after weeks of concern over disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Chief executive Benjamin Smith said all indicators are positive for the July and August peak travel season in terms of availability at the airline's French and Dutch hubs.

Other European carriers delivered similar messages in the days before. Lufthansa said there were no signs of supply risk at its six European hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels and Rome. Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary said supply appears secure until September, and Jet2 said it does not expect disruption to its summer flight schedule.

The improved sentiment reflects a more balanced supply picture than earlier in the year. Higher regional refinery output, inventory drawdowns and imports from the United States and Nigeria have helped offset the loss of Middle Eastern barrels following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of jet fuel shortages across Europe that had built up since the conflict began.

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European jet fuel prices have responded by falling, holding below $1,200 a tonne for almost two weeks, the lowest level since the start of the US-Iran conflict, though still roughly 50 percent above pre-war levels. IATA's weekly fuel price index, compiled from Platts spot assessments, showed the global average jet fuel price down 5.1 percent week on week in its most recent reading to $138.86 a barrel, extending a decline from the highs reached when the North West Europe jet crack spread spiked above $121 a barrel against a historical norm of roughly $30.

Supply conditions remain tight despite the improvement. Unplanned refinery outages could quickly disrupt deliveries to individual airports, and the continued absence of normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz means the global jet fuel market stays undersupplied. Europe must keep competing with other regions for available cargoes, and market participants expect prices to stay elevated for several more months even as the immediate crisis eases.

For fuel buyers, the period since the closure has been the sharpest jet fuel price disruption since the Russia-Ukraine refinery shock of March 2022, with US Gulf Coast prices climbing from roughly $2.26 a gallon in February to $3.93 a gallon in April before easing through May and June. The combination of recovering Middle East flows, resilient European refinery runs and still-thin certified stockpiles points to a market that could stay volatile through the rest of the third quarter.