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• The June 2026 US ferrous scrap Trend Indicator came in at 54.9, above neutral, with a model-predicted average month-on-month price increase of 2.0%.
• Sellers posted a bullish reading of 67.1 while buyers registered 47.5, a divergence reflecting disagreement on whether fundamentals support higher prices.
• Inventory levels at 50.7 are close to average, with mills neither short nor long on scrap units heading into June trade.
• US raw steel output reached 1.88 million tons in the week of June 6, with mills at 81.3% utilization, providing a stable demand floor for domestic scrap.
• A UAW strike at American Axle from June 1 introduced caution among automotive-linked scrap buyers over potential steel demand reduction.

US ferrous scrap prices are expected to move modestly higher in June 2026, with market participants signaling a limited but positive price direction rather than a sharp move in either direction. The monthly Trend Indicator posted a reading of 54.9 ahead of June trade, sitting above the neutral 50.0 level but well below readings associated with a forceful upward price move. The prediction model for the month allows for an average increase of 2.0% over the prior month, following a 1.4% gain recorded in May.

The split in sentiment across market participants is notable. Sellers entered June as the most bullish group, with their Trend Indicator reading at 67.1, while brokers held a neutral 50.0 and buyers came in cautious at 47.5. This divergence reflects the fundamental tension in the market: sellers see enough demand support to push for higher prices, while buyers are questioning whether underlying conditions justify the ask. Geopolitical uncertainty was cited by survey participants as a factor weighing on market confidence, adding to the reluctance among buyers to move aggressively on procurement.

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Inventory levels heading into June were estimated at 50.7, a reading close to average stocking levels. This suggests that mills are neither meaningfully short on scrap units nor sitting on excess inventory, a balanced position that limits the urgency on either side of the market. The Market Driver response of 'All Unchanged' carried 67% consensus among respondents slightly above the recent average range indicating that no single factor is expected to dominate June price direction.

The domestic US steel production picture has been supportive. Raw steel output in the week ending June 6 reached 1.88 million tons, with mills running at an 81.3% capability utilization rate. This level of activity keeps demand for prime and shredded scrap grades relatively stable, providing a floor under domestic scrap buying even as export market dynamics introduce some uncertainty. A UAW strike at an American Axle manufacturing facility in Three Rivers, Michigan, that began on June 1 added a note of caution among automotive-linked scrap buyers, with analysts watching whether the labor action would translate into reduced steel demand from the automotive sector.

For procurement teams managing scrap buying for electric arc furnace operations or steel service centers, the June 2026 environment calls for measured positioning. The 2% price increase signal is not strong enough to warrant aggressive forward buying, but the combination of above-neutral sentiment, moderate inventory, and firm mill utilization rates suggests that waiting for significant price relief may not be a productive strategy heading into the summer buying cycle.