Crude Futures Firm on Spot Demand
Crude oil futures firmed amid firm spot demand, with both major global benchmarks edging higher in trade. Increased positioning by market participants reflected continued underlying demand support.
Base Oil Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis, Latest News & Market Insights
Written ByPragati Agarwal
Base Oil Latest Development
Hormuz Disruption Tightens Global Oil Supply
Strait of Hormuz closure continues to constrain global oil supply, with observed output remaining significantly below year-ago levels. IEA revised its demand forecast downward as inventories fell to multi-decade lows, reinforcing upward price pressure and market volatility.
Base Oil Price Trend Q2 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Oil | USA | FOB | USD 1,835.00/MT | June 2026 |
| Base Oil | UAE | CFR | USD 1,937.55/MT | June 2026 |
| Base Oil | Germany | FOB | USD 2,019.93/MT | June 2026 |
| Base Oil | Singapore | FOB | USD 1,530.00/MT | June 2026 |
| Base Oil | India | CFR | USD 1,520.00/MT | June 2026 |
| Base Oil | USA | FOB | USD 1,815.00/MT | May 2026 |
| Base Oil | UAE | CFR | USD 1,720.00/MT | May 2026 |
| Base Oil | Germany | FOB | USD 1,950.00/MT | May 2026 |
| Base Oil | Singapore | FOB | USD 1,590.00/MT | May 2026 |
| Base Oil | India | CFR | USD 1,535.00/MT | May 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Base Oil prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
- Global base oil prices showed mixed regional movements in Q2 2026, with supply disruptions supporting prices early in the quarter before crude correction reduced cost pressure.
- Feedstock conditions were influenced by crude oil, refinery availability and supply disruptions, especially for premium grades.
- Downstream demand remained cautious as lubricant blenders reduced purchases due to high costs and difficulty passing increases to end users.
Asia
Base Oil prices in China were affected by grade-wise supply differences during Q2’26. Group I and Group II prices increased early in the quarter due to higher crude-linked costs and supply pressure but softened later as crude values declined and domestic production remained strong. China produced close to 580,000 tonnes of paraffinic base oils in April, supporting domestic Group II availability and limiting price increases compared with imported grades. Group III prices remained firm due to restricted international supply and dependence on imported premium-grade material. Later in the quarter, lower crude prices reduced feedstock support, while weaker lubricant demand and cautious purchasing pressured the market.
Europe
Base Oil prices in Germany declined to ~EUR 1.81/kg in April and ~EUR 1.67/kg in May, showing a ~7.5% decrease. European markets experienced strong price increases early in Q2 due to reduced supply, lower refinery availability and limited Group II and Group III availability. European Group II supply declined significantly during April, creating tighter conditions for lubricant blenders. However, prices stabilised later as supply improved, crude values weakened and buyers reduced inventory levels. Group III remained the tightest segment due to limited Middle Eastern availability, keeping premium-grade prices elevated.
North America
Base Oil prices in the United States declined to ~USD 2,400.00/MT in April and ~USD 1,815.00/MT in the following month. Despite the decline shown in monthly prices, the North American market faced strong supply pressure during Q2 due to maintenance shutdowns, limited Group III availability and higher export demand. Middle Eastern supply disruptions affected premium-grade availability, while producers implemented price increases across Group I, Group II and Group III grades. However, rising lubricant production costs reduced buying activity as blenders lowered operating rates and managed inventories cautiously. Lower crude prices provided some relief later in the quarter but did not fully offset supply constraints.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, base oil prices are expected to remain dependent on crude movements, refinery availability and Group III supply recovery, with premium grades likely to remain supported.
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- Base oil prices increased globally during Q1’26, with Europe witnessing a sharper rise compared to North America, driven by supply disruptions and rising crude-linked costs.
- Feedstock crude oil remained the primary driver, as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and logistics constraints significantly raised production and import costs.
- Downstream demand remained moderate, with lubricant and industrial consumption continuing, though growth was limited due to economic pressures and high prices.
Asia
In Asia, base oil prices followed an upward trend as crude oil costs increased sharply during the quarter. The Iran conflict disrupted tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing freight charges and insurance costs, which directly raised feedstock costs for refiners. Asian refiners faced supply constraints due to reduced crude availability and logistical delays, forcing adjustments in sourcing strategies and refinery operations. Demand from lubricants and industrial sectors remained steady, but elevated prices and supply uncertainties limited aggressive procurement, keeping the market firm but controlled.
Europe
In Europe, base oil prices rose significantly from ~0.84 EUR/kg (FD NWE) in January to ~1.21 EUR/kg in March, reflecting a ~42% increase. The rise was driven by higher crude oil prices as disrupted Gulf exports forced European buyers to compete for limited cargoes. Freight rates and insurance premiums increased due to shipping risks, raising import costs. Limited availability of crude and rerouting of LNG shipments further strained energy logistics. Buyers also secured alternative sources and long-term contracts, which tightened spot availability and supported higher base oil pricing despite moderate downstream demand.
North America
In North America, base oil prices increased from ~USD 1,782/MT (FOB Texas) in January to ~USD 1,966/MT in March, marking a ~10.33% rise. The increase was driven by higher crude oil prices, which rose from USD 64/barrel in January to USD 86/barrel in March due to geopolitical tensions and supply risks. Increased freight and insurance costs for Gulf imports added to feedstock expenses, while domestic production adjustments and reliance on strategic stockpiles helped maintain supply balance. Demand from the lubricant and industrial sectors remained stable, supporting price increases.
About Base Oil
Base oil refers to lubrication grade oils that are derived from refining crude oil (mineral base oil) or chemical synthesis (synthetic base oil). Group II base oils contain more than 90% saturates, less than 0.3% sulphur, and have a viscosity index of 80 to 120. They are commonly produced through hydrocracking, which is a more complex process than that used for Group I base oils. Group II base oils have better antioxidation properties because all of their hydrocarbon molecules are saturated.
Base Oil Product Detail
Hs Code
271019
Industrial Uses
Rubber Manufacturing, Textiles, Blending of Engine Oils
Supplier Database
Chevron Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Hyundai and Shell Base Oil Co., Petro-Canada Lubricant, Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Base Oil Production Processes
- Production of Base Oils (Group II) via Hydroprocessing
In this process, vacuum gas oil is used as a feedstock which is run through a hydrocracker at very high pressures. Inside the hydrocarbon, the molecules are reshaped and saturated. Sulfur is converted into hydrogen sulfide gas and nitrogen into ammonia, forming a waxy base oil containing more than 90% saturated compounds.
The second reactor is a catalytic dewaxer which converts the wax molecules to isoparaffins and causes even more saturation. Finally, the final few percent of residual aromatic compounds are saturated to form Group II base oils in a lower temperature but very high-pressure finishing step.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Pragati Agarwal
Senior Business Insights Analyst
Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.
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Price trends across a diverse portfolio of categories and products, spanning board to niche chemicals
Coverage extendable to grade-specific chemicals based on procurement requirements
Regular price tracking supported by robust historical datasets
News, policy updates, and key market drivers impacting price movements
Short-term and long-term price outlooks and forecasts
Supply-demand dynamics and capacity-driven market analysis
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