- Ethylene prices followed a mixed-to-firm trajectory in early 2026, with strength in Asia offset by persistent weakness in oversupplied Western markets.
- Crude oil prices surged amid disruption of ~20% of global oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly raising production costs.
- Demand remained mixed in Asia due to import reliance, while Europe and North America saw limited improvement due to weak derivative sectors.
Asia
Ethylene prices in Asia trended upward, supported by tightening supply and firm demand. Reduced operating rates at steam crackers and ongoing rationalization across Japan and South Korea, targeting 20–28% capacity reductions, constrained output and limited spot availability. This pushed buyers toward imports, increasing competition for cargoes and lifting regional prices.
In India, ethylene prices increased from INR 63.08/kg (CIF) in January to INR 67.65/kg in March, marking a 5.16% rise from February to March 2026. The gains were primarily driven by stronger import dependence, constrained regional supply, and elevated feedstock costs. Additionally, global supply risks intensified as OPEC+ output is expected to decline by up to 11 million bpd, while strategic reserves released by the IEA cover only ~20 days of disrupted flows, tightening overall olefin cost support.
Europe
The European ethylene market remained subdued due to structural oversupply and weak downstream demand. Cracker utilization rates remained low at around 75% in 2025, with only a modest recovery expected in early 2026. Continued imports of olefins and derivatives further pressured domestic producers, while demand remained stagnant amid ongoing economic uncertainty, inflation, and weak industrial activity. These factors collectively limited any meaningful recovery in ethylene pricing.
North America
The North American ethylene market continued to face oversupply and weak downstream demand, keeping price movements largely constrained. However, rising feedstock costs provided some support to the market. Higher natural gas and ethane prices, driven by strong global demand and new cracker startups in Asia and Mexico, compressed margins to near breakeven levels. This created pressure on producers and raised concerns about potential reductions in operating rates, although no major supply cuts have been confirmed. Despite weak fundamentals, elevated feedstock costs prevented further price declines.