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Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates a significant increase in American upland cotton exports to India, with shipments rising sharply between February and April. U.S. upland cotton exports to India increased by approximately 499% during February-April 2024 YOY compared to the same period in 2024. The figures peaked in late February, hitting their highest level in over two and a half years.

Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) is the most widely grown and commercially significant type of cotton in the world, accounting for about 90% of global cotton production. In the U.S., it is mainly grown in Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Arkansas.

Industry analysts attribute this surge to multiple factors, including escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, declining cotton prices in the U.S., and growing demand in India. With China’s plan on imposing higher tariffs on American goods from 84% to 125% effective from Saturday (April 20), the U.S. cotton exports to the world's top cotton consumer have been adversely affected. As a result, upland cotton produced in Texas and other key growing regions is increasingly being redirected to India.

Despite being the world's second-largest cotton producer, India has recently transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer of the fiber due to declining yields.

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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its production estimates downward by 250,000 bales for the current season, projecting output at 30.1 million bales, a 7.84% decline compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, ICE cotton futures have fallen by nearly 5% this year, making imports more attractive. Forecasts suggest that India could face a shortfall of 2.5 million bales this season, a gap likely to be filled by increased imports.