US Ethanol Supply Builds Through October as Production Climbs, Gulf Coast Stocks Hit 30 Percent Yearly Surplus

• US ethanol output rose to 1.065 million barrels per day in the week ended October 9, up 12,000 week on week
• Stocks of 23.942 million barrels in that week ran 5.8 percent above year-ago levels
• Gulf Coast inventories at 5.016 million barrels sat 30.4 percent above a year earlier
• West Coast stocks of 2.159 million barrels stayed 14 percent below year-ago levels
• Blending held near 897,000 to 899,000 barrels per day across the October reports

US ethanol fundamentals pointed to a comfortable supply environment through the first three weeks of October 2026, with weekly stocks swinging in a tight range above year-ago levels and production recovering after a late-September dip. For the week ended September 25, output had fallen 2.0 percent to 1.01 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly print since late January, with stocks drawing 3.3 percent to about 23.9 million barrels, the lowest reading of 2026. Export flows during that week jumped 16.4 percent to 142,000 barrels per day, and refiner and blender inputs rose to a four-week high of 914,000 barrels per day, supporting the draw.

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Production recovered sharply through the first two weeks of October. For the week ended October 2, output climbed 46,000 barrels per day to 1.053 million barrels per day, still 1.7 percent below the year-earlier reference, while blending held steady at 897,000 barrels per day. Stocks slipped 122,000 barrels to 23.743 million barrels but remained 4.5 percent above the year-earlier level, and Gulf Coast inventories at 4.925 million barrels sat 26.2 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the pull of US export logistics. By the week ended October 9, production had added another 12,000 barrels per day to 1.065 million barrels per day, stocks had rebuilt to 23.942 million barrels, up 5.8 percent year on year, and the Gulf Coast surplus had widened to 5.016 million barrels, up 30.4 percent year on year. The West Coast, by contrast, remained short at 2.159 million barrels, 14 percent below a year earlier, pointing to a persistent regional supply split.

For procurement teams, the setup argues for staggered coverage. Gasoline blenders and industrial ethanol users on the US Gulf and in Midwest base cities should take advantage of the comfortable fourth-quarter position to lock near-term requirements, with West Coast buyers covering longer-dated needs across railcar and barge logistics to protect against the regional inventory tightness. Export desks selling to Asia and Latin America should move quickly against the still-above-average Gulf Coast surplus, since further production gains and a widening blend-wall overhang could pull US spot pricing lower into November. Buyers negotiating 2027 term volumes should press for a formula indexed to RBOB gasoline and corn to track both the demand pull from blending and the feedstock cost line as Indian E20 and Indonesian E5 mandates feed into the Asian seaborne market in the first quarter.