Ethanol Price Trend and Forecast

Ethanol Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Ethanol in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

 

Ethanol Price Trend for the First Half of 2025

Asia

In the first half of 2025, ethanol prices in Asia showed a mostly stable to slightly weak trend. This was largely because sugar prices in the region were under pressure due to weaker crude oil values, which made ethanol production less attractive. Many sugar mills preferred to produce more sugar instead of ethanol, anticipating better margins from sugar.
 

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Additionally, India, one of Asia’s major ethanol producers, maintained a cautious stance on pricing. While the government slightly increased procurement prices for ethanol made from C-heavy molasses, rates for other sources remained unchanged. This reflected a focus on cost-efficiency rather than aggressive price hikes. Limited changes in ethanol blending policies and subdued fuel demand across parts of Asia further kept prices from rising significantly.

Europe

In Europe, ethanol prices softened through H1’25, driven by sluggish demand and abundant supply. The region continued to face structural overcapacity, similar to the broader ethylene market, which spilled over into ethanol dynamics as well. With the transport and industrial sectors not showing strong recovery, ethanol consumption remained below expectations. Moreover, the push for cleaner fuels and electrification of transport reduced the urgency for higher ethanol blending. Seasonal demand spikes were also muted, and overall, ethanol prices followed a downward to flat trend amid a lack of significant supportive factors.

North America

North America saw a similar softening trend in ethanol prices during the first half of 2025. Domestic demand was modest, especially as gasoline consumption remained stable or slightly down due to improved fuel efficiency and growing electric vehicle usage. Weather-related disruptions early in the year briefly affected ethanol production in some Gulf Coast facilities, but operations resumed quickly, adding to already high inventories. The pressure from lower corn and grain prices, along with reduced biofuel blending incentives, also contributed to weaker ethanol price trends across the region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Ethanol prices may remain under pressure unless there is a clear rebound in fuel demand or tighter supply conditions emerge globally.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for Q4 of 2024

Asia

The ethanol market in Asia exhibited mixed trends during the last quarter of 2024. In India, government policies remained supportive of the ethanol industry. In November, sugar mills urged the government to increase ethanol prices to help sustain the sector. With sugar prices falling due to delays in the crushing season, particularly in states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, mills faced financial losses. The government considered these requests and gave a positive indication; however, no clear decision was made on raising prices, as lower ethanol prices supported demand.

Meanwhile, in China, declining prices of the primary feedstock, corn, exerted downward pressure on ethanol prices, causing them to fall in the early part of the quarter. By mid-October, ethanol prices showed signs of stabilization and fluctuated within a narrow range for a brief period. However, continued weakness in the upstream market sustained downward pressure on ethanol prices, leading to a persistent decline until the end of the quarter.

Europe

In the European markets, ethanol prices followed a fluctuating trajectory throughout the last quarter of 2024. During this period, the conclusion of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement introduced additional duty-free quotas for ethanol. The fuel sector, the largest consumer of ethanol in the EU, was expected to benefit from this agreement. However, the European Renewable Ethanol Association (ePURE) criticized the deal, arguing that it disproportionately favored Mercosur countries, potentially undermining the EU's renewable ethanol sector, energy independence, and sustainability goals. As a result, ethanol prices in the region remained volatile, influenced by policy uncertainty and the rapid expansion of trade regulations.

North America

In North America, specifically in the United States, ethanol prices faced moderate downward pressure during Q4 of 2024. While ethanol production in the U.S. continued to grow, the market encountered challenges as export demand declined while inventories remained high, driving prices lower. Domestic ethanol demand remained relatively stable, with slight increases in blending activity. Additionally, logistical challenges, particularly during the winter, added further pressure to the market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the ethanol price trend will likely show regional variations in the upcoming quarter. Government policy changes will play a key role in shaping the ethanol price curve.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for Q3 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Ethanol	Chemicals	South America	595 USD/ MT	July'24

Stay updated with the latest Ethanol prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

In Q3 2024, the domestic ethanol market faced significant challenges marked by fluctuating supply and weak demand. Prices declined steadily, reflecting a year-on-year drop driven by sluggish consumption in the Baijiu sector, which remained off-season. Cost pressures arose from an unstable corn market, where operating rates varied widely across regions, particularly in East China.

Key production facilities underwent maintenance, further complicating supply dynamics. While some producers kept prices stable, the overall sentiment leaned toward consolidation amidst an oversupply situation. Rising raw material costs added pressure to production, but a surplus grain environment offered some respite. Ultimately, the lack of demand recovery indicated that the ethanol market would likely remain weak, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels in the short term.

On the other hand, ethanol prices in India rose due to increased demand and government support for corn-based production. The government aimed for a 20% blending target by 2025-26, prompting a revision of ethanol procurement prices to encourage production. This shift led to record-high corn prices and a rise in corn imports, tightening supply for industries like poultry.

As a result, ethanol prices increased in response to the higher production costs and strong demand from distilleries. Meanwhile, India has turned into a net importer of corn as corn-based ethanol manufacturing is on the rise as the government is promoting ethanol blending in gasoline to achieve decarbonization goals. This will affect the supply of ethanol in the Indian market, driven purely by rising demand for ethanol. Prices in India are set to rise even more going forward.

Europe

In Q3 2024, the European ethanol market saw prices stabilize after an increase in supply from Brazilian shipments, which helped alleviate earlier price pressures. As summer driving season kicked in, demand remained strong, boosting buying interest. European producers also reported record greenhouse gas savings of 79.1% compared to fossil petrol, highlighting their progress in decarbonization. Overall, the combination of improved supply and strong demand led to a more balanced market, despite some ongoing cost pressures from raw materials.

South America

The prices of ethanol in the South American market showed a fluctuating trend. The prices remained volatile but were rangebound. The spot prices were approximately 595 USD/ MT in July and slid mildly over the next month. The marginal fall in the prices was because of increased production efficiency which resulted in an oversupply.

The consumer demand was average with not any drastic deviation, primarily because of the slow Brazilian economy, and temporary adjustment to ethanol blending operations. Exports of ethanol from Brazil to Europe had picked up the pace in this quarter as new shipments started arriving in the European Union. These orders helped stabilize the markets slightly. Overall, a varying performance was witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the ethyl oxide prices are expected to fluctuate and show regional variations in the coming months, the overall demand trajectory, however, looks supportive.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for Q2 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Ethanol	Chemicals	Brazil	584 USD/MT	April’24
Ethanol	Chemicals	Brazil	558 USD/MT	June’24

Stay updated with the latest Ethanol prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

In India, the ethanol market saw robust trade activities throughout the said quarter. Both supply and demand were positively motivated by the country's consistent efforts to increase its fuel blending volumes and move towards greener energy. India has significantly increased the percentage of ethanol made from foodgrains like maize and rice, rising from 37.4% last year to 51% in the 2023-24 period.

This shift comes as part of the government’s strategy to reduce reliance on sugar for ethanol production. By June 9, India produced about 357 crore litres of ethanol, with 181 crore litres derived from grains, primarily maize. This push aims to achieve the E20 petrol target by 2025-26, with current blending at 12.7% against a 15% target for this year.

The government discourages sugar use for ethanol due to its high water requirements. The government plans to procure corn through national agencies to ensure a steady supply for ethanol production. Overall, ethanol prices remained positively motivated in India throughout the said period of Q2’24.

Europe

The European ethanol market remained positively inclined throughout Q2’24. Initially, the price graph was even more elevated, building on the rise of the previous quarter. High downstream demands have been driving the prices for ethanol in E.U. markets. Later shipments of Brazilian ethanol began arriving in Europe as European ethanol prices continued to rise due to limited imports since last year attributed to various logistical complications.

Despite early-year stock draws in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, ethanol stocks have remained sufficient with new arrivals since March. Brazilian ethanol exports to Europe significantly increased in April and May, following minimal shipments in the first quarter. Europe, a net importer of ethanol, relies heavily on imports to meet its consumption needs. While short-term arbitrage conditions improved in late May and early June, Brazilian ethanol suppliers are likely to focus on the domestic market due to strong local demand and improved domestic prices.

South America

During the second quarter of 2024, ethanol prices in Brazil saw a slight dip despite elevated demands both domestically and internationally. Ethanol prices in Brazil are currently below production costs and are not expected to recover until at least July due to mills being unable to secure financing for storage because of existing debts, according to the Sugar Cane Industry Association (Unica).

Despite the Brazilian government's announcement in March to offer around $1 billion in financing for storing 5 billion litres of ethanol, many companies, facing liquidity issues and a lack of credit, have accelerated fuel sales to generate cash flow, causing prices to plummet. The monthly average prices in the Brazilian market went from about 584 USD/MT in April’24 to around 558 USD/MT in June’24.

Additionally, Brazil's government has decided to maintain an 18% tariff on U.S. ethanol imports, impacting the U.S. corn growers amid a record surplus. The Foreign Trade Chamber upheld the tariffs, which were temporarily removed in 2022 to combat rising fuel prices but reinstated nine months later.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the rising Ethanol demand globally, the prices are expected to comfortably increase globally in the coming months.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for Q1 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Ethanol	Chemicals	USA	USD 500/MT	March 2024
Ethanol	Chemicals	Europe	USD 600MT	March 2024

Stay updated with the latest Ethanol prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

In Asian countries, significant ethanol producers like China, India, and Thailand registered an increased production of ethanol. This incline was influenced by the stable influx of raw materials and noticeable upticks in consumption rates in countries such as China.

The rising demand was particularly for transportation needs and reducing oil dependency, which in the early months of the quarter pressurized the tight global supplies and feedstock costs, sustaining pricing pressures and volatility in the market. Additionally, the producers and government also facilitated policies in order to deal with the changing landscape of the ethanol market, which was well reflected in the overall improved momentum of the ethanol market.

Europe

The European Union saw a narrow movement in the price trend of ethanol during the first quarter, with a slight decline in ethanol output in 2024 due to challenges like high feedstock costs and geopolitical tensions. Despite this, a minimal increase is expected to meet renewable energy targets. The striking rise in the procurement rates of gasoline and automotive industries raised the overall demand for ethanol in European countries.

The government mandates, adjusting policies, and favorable shifts in gasoline pricing support domestic consumption. However, the constrained activities of supply chains and import volumes in the region stunted the growth of the market, resulting in its bleak outlook. Further, the changing dynamics of trading routes due to the blockage of the Red Sea channel and the rise in the number of attacks on overseas shipments amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas crisis also presented a challenge for the ethanol price trend in the first quarter of 2024.

North America

The global ethanol industries underwent a pivotal phase amid shifting energy paradigms and choices of the downstream industries under the prevalence of viability of more eco-friendly options. Leading producers like the United States, supported by the rise in government investments, reported a surge in production.

This incline in production rates was further driven by heightened demand fueled by rising gasoline prices and exceeding exports. However, concerns emerged over corn availability due to dry weather in key regions, influencing price dynamics. Additional challenges, such as high feedstock costs and geopolitical tensions surrounding Russian exports, contribute to expectations of sustained high prices and market stability in the first quarter of 2024.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ethanol is expected to incline in the next quarters as the rise in its usage in the gasoline industry and matching production volumes will fuel its price trend.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for October - December of 2023

Asia

The prices of ethanol in Asian countries such as India followed a challenging interplay between various forces of market dynamics. A group of oil-marketing companies raised the prices of ethanol in the region during the last quarter of 2023. Many sugar mills stopped their production of ethanol from sugar as the region moved towards the production of the same by C-heavy molasses.

This switch in methodology affected the existing inventories as they depleted at a quicker pace. This opened a window for the traders to increase their price quotations and recover the losses incurred in the last quarters. In addition to this, the green signal from the government over mixing up to 90% ethanol in traditional fuels has also influenced the ethanol price trend.

Europe

A surge in EU imports of Ukrainian sugar as the region lifted import duties amid the Russia-Ukraine war drove the inventories up and the prices of ethanol downwards. The region worked against the global winds of ethanol prices.

The ethanol price regulators asked the trading sector to keep the import rates under check as the domestic producers struggled with a consistent decline in the sugar and, in turn, ethanol price trend. It was assumed that the demand from the automotive and other related industries, along with the shift of consumers towards greener fuels, would raise the ethanol price graph, but the rising level of inventories acted as a roadblock in this journey.

North America

The US government had to intervene in the ethanol market as it witnessed quite an incline in ethanol prices during the last quarter of 2023. As the trend of ethanol-blended gasoline took over the market, the manufacturers and traders enjoyed the rise in demand. To provide relief to the consumers and in view of the impending elections, the government halted the upward journey of ethanol price trend as the fourth quarter approached its completion.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ethanol are likely to achieve an incline in the upcoming quarter based on the rising demand for green fuel.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for July - September of 2023

Asia

The Asian market witnessed a steep incline in the ethanol price graph during the third quarter of the year 2023. Owing to the institutional push by various governments to enhance the ethanol blending capacities in fossil fuels, the price forecasts suggested that the market demand for ethanol will rise. This was testified by the robust growth shown by the ethanol price curve during the said time. A rise in crude oil and other fuel prices, too, lifted the ethanol market sentiments.

The difficult agricultural situation in the rainy season increased the feedstock starch crop prices. The unseasonal and uneven rainfall patterns largely curtailed the raw material supplies, thus resulting in unnecessary cost pressure from the upstream side. Overall, rising market sentiments were observed throughout the said period.

Europe

Contrary to the Asian market, European ethanol prices declined for the majority of the period during Q3’23. There were several factors responsible for this shift in market dynamics.

The European markets were experiencing some relief from the mountainous inflation that skyrocketed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The supply chains had been restored after a long time, so offshore procurements became cheaper and more accessible. These situations led to low swinging patterns in the ethanol price graph for the European region.

South America

The South American market experienced mixed market trend for ethanol in the third quarter of the year 2023. The prices largely fluctuated within a narrow range, suggesting market stability.

In the Brazilian ethanol market, the monthly average spot prices went from around 568 USD/MT in July to about 561 USD/MT in September.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Ethanol price analysis suggests scope for improvements in the pricing fundamentals going forward. Good demand will likely lift up the ethanol markets.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Ethanol prices expressed positive fluctuating sentiments in the first half of 2023. Countries are trying to increase Ethanol blending capacities in an attempt to shift dependencies to biofuels, thereby directly impacting the market demands for Ethanol. Feedstock sugar and corn also experienced price hikes around this period, further pushing ethanol prices. Overall, the prices remained high, swinging.

Europe

Ethanol performed fairly well in the European market in H1 2023. The prices mostly kept soaring and fluctuated with energy prices. Given the expensive imports, the prices further rose in the domestic market. However, since the trade has started to normalize and the international situation has improved, imports from America are readily reaching European shores. However, the rising demand from the downstream sectors is greatly influencing the ethanol price trend.

North America

The North American ethanol market had a stable start at the beginning of 2023. Inventories were full and could cater to the steady demands from the downstream industries. So initially, at the beginning of Quarter 1, prices didn’t change much. But the prices started rising in the middle of the first quarter as the market demand from domestic and international markets kept getting stronger. Further, the rising feedstock prices also contributed to the inclined price trend. Overall, ethanol prices had a high wavering run throughout the said period.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, Ethanol prices are expected to exhibit the same high-wavering trend in the coming months. The rising downstream demand and feedstock corn and sugar prices will continue to drive the ethanol market sentiments.
 

Ethanol Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia Pacific

The Asian-Pacific region witnessed a fluctuating pattern in the price trend for ethanol in Q3. Initially, the prices declined as the imports from North America were reduced. The prices gained momentum as the demand for biofuel increased in China and India. The prices of ethanol were stable in the fourth quarter owing to high demand from end-user industries amidst high energy production costs and covid restrictions.

Europe

The European market also witnessed a trend similar to that of the Asian-Pacific region. The high inflation rates and energy costs impacted the price trend of ethanol but the increased focus of the region on the production of sugars and other food items drove the prices of ethanol.

The demand for the production of biofuel fluctuated in the third quarter but remained stable during the fourth quarter. The third quarter also suffered from strikes of union members causing disruption in supply chain dynamics, fluctuating feedstock prices, and weak demand from the pharmaceutical sector leading to the decline in prices.

North America

The North American market showcased a mixed trend in the third quarter of 2022. The decline in prices was attributed to the reduction in inquiries from the end-user industries. However, the demand for feedstock sugarcane and corn increased along with a rise in demand for ethanol from the pharmaceutical and biofuel industry causing a surge in the prices in both the third and fourth quarters of 2022. The fourth quarter was majorly favourable towards the prices but towards the end, the prices plummeted. This dip was due to the stockpiling of produce, weak weather conditions, and moderate demand from the gasoline sector.

Analyst Insight

The prices of Ethanol are expected to incline in the upcoming months. The rise in the usage of biofuel and the increase in the prices of feedstock materials will lead to an incline in the price trend of ethanol.
 

Ethanol Price Trend For Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

With the Chinese government lifting the covid-19 restrictions, the industries renewed their production; however, due to the lower downstream demand, the prices of ethanol remained towards the lower end of the scale. The muted market sentiment due to volatility and high feedstock prices caused the sellers to sell the products at a lower price in the domestic market to vacate inventories for the new production in the upcoming season. Per ton prices of ethanol averaged around 7150 RMB in the said quarter.

Europe

According to FAO, food and feed prices are expected to rise 8% and 22% in the current year and the likely to sustain for a more extended period amid the continuing geopolitical and economic backlash. The prices of primary feedstock like sugarcane and corn reached unprecedented highs. Along with the increased demand due to biofuel production, ethanol prices averaged 1.3 USD/litre in the European domestic arena.

North America

Due to the supply-demand dynamics mismatch, prices soared in the US domestic market. The rising costs of feedstocks, increased biofuel demand and the high production costs contributed to ethanol price increase. The ethanol prices averaged 0.8 USD/litre in the said quarter.
 

Ethanol Price Trend For First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Some domestic ethanol manufacturers' quotations increased towards the end of March. The Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang corn alcohol facility, which produced 100,000 MT per year, was shut down. In several Chinese provinces, the external quotation for regular alcohol was 7150-7200 RMB/MT. Henan Hanyong Alcohol Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 MTPA ethanol facility was also shut down, and the quotation was hiked to 7300 RMB/MT, including tax.

Europe

Europe's ethanol spot prices is expected to continue to trade at a significant premium to Eurobob oxy grade gasoline in 2022, as a result of prolonged restricted supply and increased demand for greater ethanol mixes in countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
 

Ethanol Price Trend For Fourth Quarter of 2021

North America

The market in North America remained stable throughout the fourth quarter of 2021. The demand expectation for local and international markets surpasses production capacities, as high grain prices caused facilities to scale back production. Several facilities, on the other hand, declared turnarounds ahead of schedule in order to avoid expensive input. Numerous market participants predicted that the current trend would likely continue into the following quarter. As a result of this ripple effect, ethanol prices reached an all-time high in Q4 2021, while FOB California negotiations crested at 694 USD/MT in November 2021.

Asia Pacific

In the Q-4 of 2021, the Asia Pacific ethanol market steadily increased the prices, demonstrating different sentiments across areas. Offers increased across the Asia Pacific region for a variety of reasons. However, in India, the government's choice to increase local production resulted in a bigger global sugar supply imbalance. Additionally, a joint venture between GAIL and GACL has established a second-generation bioethanol factory in Gujarat, India. As a result, Ex-Mumbai ethanol prices were 810 USD/MT in the quarter ending December 2021.

Europe

In July 2021, the EU Commission proposed the "Fit for 55 Package '' to line with European Climate Change, which establishes higher standards for carbon neutrality by 2050. Whereas Europe's domestic market sentiments remained down due to the ongoing energy shortage and constrained natural gas supplies. In terms of demand growth, the German market fell short of the advances seen in France and the United Kingdom in 2021. As a result, ethanol prices in Germany remained buoyant, and the price for the quarter ending in December 2021 was at 1056 USD/MT.

South America

Sugar's significant price premium over ethanol, the volatility of the Brazilian real/US dollar exchange rate, and the uncertain changes in the Petrobras' gasoline price will all continue to be significant drivers of the chemical’s prices in 2022. The severe weather and fires that occurred in 2021 also harmed planting activities and injured sugar cane roots, potentially reducing production in the 2022-23 crop season. The volatility of the Brazilian real against the US dollar will continue to influence ethanol mills' decisions to prioritise sugar or ethanol output in 2022.
 

Ethanol Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

North America

In North America, ethanol prices increased as a result of production reduction and increased demand from local consumers and export markets. Prices soared during Q1 2021 due to a scarcity of feedstock corn. Additionally, the winter season interrupted industrial operations along the Gulf Coast, forcing some production plants to shut down unexpectedly in January and February. Additionally, USA exports soared as a result of China's unexpected increase in export demand.

Ethanol prices in the United States increased during the third quarter, supported by strong downstream demand and a feedstock bottleneck in the country. The primary reason for the continual increase in pricing was the worldwide market's severe lack of feed corn and sugarcane.

Major US exporters stated that demand for maize from China surged significantly during this time period, affecting feedstock corn prices in the US market. Thus, a sharp increase in the price of feedstock commodities and increased demand from the fuel combining industry resulted in a steady increase in the price of the chemical in the country. Thus, ethanol prices in the United States stayed around 1585 USD/MT throughout the final week of June.

Ethanol prices increased dramatically in the North American market in Q3 2021. Limited availability of feedstock, logistical challenges, tight production, and an ongoing rise in crude oil costs all contributed to the region's skyrocketing its prices in Q3. During the quarter, interest from major downstream sectors increased.

Exporters indicated that China's demand for corn surged significantly in Q3 2021, thus affecting feedstock corn prices in the US market. Several plant turnarounds recorded as a result of Hurricane Ida's aftermath impacted regional supplies. In the fourth week of September, FOB ethanol prices in the United States were 849 USD/MT.

Asia

In Asian regions, demand for ethanol from downstream sectors remained strong in Q1 2021. In China, disinfection demand remained stable compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, to meet this demand, China imported a large amount of the product from the United States. Additionally, China's feedstock grain prices were 35-45 percent higher. Furthermore, in the Indian market, abundant supply of feedstock sugarcane pulled down prices for three consecutive months, with CFR India prices falling from 883.2 USD/MT in January 2021 to 750 USD/MT.

Ethanol prices surged in Asia during the third quarter, owing to a number of domestic and global variables. In India, the increase was mostly driven by increasing domestic demand as a result of high consumption by sanitizer producers during the pandemic's return. Additionally, demand from the pharma industry remained strong in the Indian market throughout the quarter. Meanwhile, China suffered a severe shortage of feedstock corn and sugarcane, forcing producers to import costly feedstock from the United States, resulting in a constant increase in the price of ethanol in the country during this time period. Thus, following a sustained increase throughout the quarter, ethanol prices in India hovered around 1040 USD/MT in the final week of May.

Ethanol prices in the Asia Pacific area were constant throughout the third quarter of 2021. During Q3, disruptions in the procurement of the chemical were reported, owing to rising freight prices in China. In September, the price in India was roughly 726 USD/MT. The country's price trend remained consistent due to sustained domestic demand and significant stock availability. Market participants stated that the goal of blending 20% ethanol into gasoline is becoming more difficult due to the rising inflation in its feedstock prices.

Europe

The limited availability across the region bolstered ethanol prices in Q1 2021. Though Europe is heavily reliant on ethanol imports from the United States, tight supply constrained product availability. The supply from the United States of America remained limited due to the country's low feedstock production and high exports and domestic demand. Meanwhile, demand from manufacturers of disinfectants and sanitizers remained constant throughout the quarter.

Throughout this quarter, the European market saw regular swings in ethanol demand. Uncertainties regarding pandemic instances in major Europe exacerbated the region's market instability, resulting in an unclear demand picture for the current quarter. Prices continued to rise as a result of international pressure, with feedstock prices pushing up the prices on the worldwide market. As a result, despite the volatility in demand, ethanol prices remained stable across Europe in Q2 2021.

In the third quarter of 2021, the European market saw an increase in ethanol prices due to limited raw material supply, strong purchasing power, lower industrial production, and increased logistic costs. During Q3, demand increased at an exponential rate from downstream industries. Due to worldwide pressure, pricing in the European region remained on an upward trajectory.

South America

Brazil's sugar and ethanol output increased above estimates in the first half of May 2021, catching up with past season delays and approaching levels observed at this time last season, when the country harvested a record sugar crop. In the first half of May 2021, mills produced 2.37 MT of sugar. Following this, sugar prices fell by around 2%. Cane processing had been significantly lower than in the previous season, as harvesting delayed owing to poor cane development induced by drier-than-normal weather.

Industrial yields also increased, as the amount of sugar produced per tonne of cane processed increased to 131 kg/tonne, 0.39% more than at the same time in 2020. However, the sugar cane harvest in 2021-22 was among the most difficult on record. Throughout the first half of the year, Covid-19 pandemic precautions drastically restricted demand for motor fuels.

After July, adverse weather conditions significantly restricted the quantity of fodder available for processing, creating fears of ethanol shortages and an increase in imports to compensate for the domestic supply constraint. Along with a prolonged drought, the cane crop was harmed by three waves of frost in July, which limited cane crushing in the majority of the country's major producing states. In October, other states also had record-breaking wildfires.

Despite this season's low sugarcane harvest, the sector has accumulated sufficient inventories to meet its demand. To assure adequate domestic supply, some mills altered production to increase the proportion of anhydrous ethanol in the mix. Others converted hydrous ethanol to anhydrous form by eliminating water in order to combine it with gasoline.
 

Ethanol Price Trend For the Year 2020

North America

In North America, demand for ethanol remained stagnant following a strong spring increase in the previous quarter. In August and September, both demand and output reached a plateau and stabilised below critical levels, owing to the abundant grain harvest. Demand was primarily driven by dropping stock levels in contrast to a steady increase in output since the beginning of July. The growing trend in its consumption as a fuel was also under threat, as the United States neared the conclusion of its prime seasonal travel months.

Asia

As a fuel and as a beverage additive, the Asian Ethanol industry encountered marginal supply constraints. With fears of coronavirus reappearance in numerous parts of the region, demand for the chemical as a feed for sanitizers and cleaning goods increased further in the coming months. Meanwhile, as dealers and downstream purchasers stockpiled feedstock in anticipation of a constrained supply following the harvest season, the market was expected to increase further. Capacity upgrades and increases for ethanol production in India, aided by increased government backing, alleviated supply constraints.

Europe

The European Ethanol industry continued to grow, with travel and trade activity returning to pre-lockdown levels, resulting in an increase in its demand as a fuel. Manufacturers and traders maintained their optimism about increased product offtakes as end-use sectors began stockpiling prior to the winter season to avoid a supply deficit in the coming quarter. However, with a new wave of coronavirus infections scaring the country in early September, an extraordinary concern of price volatility prevailed in the short term.

South America

Prior to the COVID-19 epidemic, the top five ethanol producers were the United States, Brazil, the European Union, China, and Canada. Brazil's total corn-based ethanol production reached 2.5 billion billion litres in 2020, an increase of 1.17 billion litres over 2019. The COVID-19 epidemic had a disproportionate impact on the worldwide biofuels industry.

The global biofuel output dropped by 12% in 2020, compared to the global record set in 2019, marking the first time in two decades that annual production would decline. The decline was caused by both decreased demand for transportation fuels and lower fossil fuel costs, which reduced the economic appeal of biofuels. In 2020, Brazil's production experienced one of the steepest year-on-year declines since 2011.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Ethanol. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.