China PVC Market Firms Through October as Shandong Offers Rise and European Capacity Closures Reshape Supply

• Shandong SG-5 PVC offers rose through October 22 with Xinfax at CNY 4,920 per tonne
• Zibo Grade 5 moved CNY 20 to 30 higher on October 14 before futures-led correction
• Westlake announced permanent Cologne PVC closure effective first quarter 2027
• European restructuring removes close to 11 million tonnes per year of nameplate capacity
• India CVD probe into Chinese suspension PVC continues alongside interim import price cap

The China PVC market worked through a volatile October 2026 with cost support softening in the first half of the month and futures-led rebounds lifting Shandong offers through the third week. Zibo Grade 5 ex-works moved up CNY 20 to 30 per tonne on October 14 to CNY 4,890 to 4,940 per tonne, with Linyi quotes at CNY 4,900 to 4,950 per tonne, as calcium carbide averages slipped to around CNY 2,540 per tonne. The rebound stalled through October 15 and 16 as futures turned and Linyi spot ticked down CNY 20 to 40 per tonne per day on quiet trade. By October 20 the Guidechem reference print had PVC at CNY 4,950 per tonne, up 1.85 percent, and by October 22 Shandong Xinfax calcium carbide SG-5 ex-works was CNY 4,920 per tonne, up CNY 50, with Shandong Lutai at CNY 4,980 per tonne and China Salt Inner Mongolia at CNY 4,720 per tonne. Zibo offers held at CNY 4,980 to 5,040 per tonne and Linyi at CNY 4,990 to 5,060 per tonne.

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The policy and structural backdrop sharpened in the same window. European restructuring continued to tighten the Atlantic basin supply picture, with close to 11 million tonnes per year of petrochemical nameplate capacity closed, idled, or earmarked since 2024, including 675,000 tonnes per year of S-PVC. Westlake announced on September 29 the permanent closure of its Cologne PVC plant in the first quarter of 2027 and completed the Vynova Wilhelmshaven purchase covering about 380,000 tonnes per year of PVC. More than 4 million tonnes per year of olefins, polyethylene, and vinyls capacity remained under review. In parallel, the Indian interim import price control from July that leaves imports at CIF above US$766 per tonne tariff-exempt is capped at six months, with a countervailing duty probe into Chinese suspension PVC underway.

For procurement teams, the setup argues for a two-track response. Converters in India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf should split fourth-quarter cover between Chinese SG-5 exports, Taiwanese and Thai cargoes, and Middle Eastern tonnes to protect blended landed cost while watching the India CVD timeline and the Indian import price cap renewal decision. European buyers should press for shorter-term pricing commitments while the Westlake and Vynova transitions complete, and should move 2027 term discussions away from fixed premiums towards a formula indexed to ethylene and calcium carbide to track the dual cost line as new Indian capacity targets 2027 start-up.