USDA Keeps Corn Use for Ethanol Flat as 2026-27 Demand Steadies

• US fuel ethanol output fell about 2% for the week ending 22 May 2026.
• Ethanol stocks rose slightly while exports dropped 32%.
• Spot ethanol held near $2.03 per gallon, about 15% above a year ago.
• USDA sees 2026-27 corn use for ethanol flat near 5.6 billion bushels.
• Soft exports and rising stocks point to easier near-term spot supply.

US fuel ethanol production declined by about 2% during the week ending 22 May 2026, based on data the Energy Information Administration released on 28 May. The pullback followed several weeks of stronger output, including a jump of more than 6% in early May, and it pulled weekly volumes back toward more typical seasonal levels. Stocks rose slightly over the same period, and exports fell by 32%, a steep drop that points to thinner overseas buying after a busy stretch of shipments earlier in the spring.

The weaker export figure matters for buyers because it leaves more product inside the domestic system. When foreign demand cools and inventories build, spot sellers have less reason to hold out for higher offers, and that tends to soften near-term pricing for both fuel-grade and industrial ethanol. Spot ethanol changed hands around $2.03 per gallon late in the month, little moved over the prior four weeks but still running about 15% above the same point a year earlier, which keeps annual budgets under pressure even as the short-term trend flattens.

Corn remains the main cost driver behind these moves, since corn-based plants account for more than 90% of US ethanol output. The US Department of Agriculture expects corn use for fuel ethanol in the 2026-27 marketing year to hold steady against the prior year at roughly 5.6 billion bushels, so the demand pull from ethanol plants is not expected to grow. That steadiness, combined with a smaller projected corn crop, sets up a tug-of-war between flat grind demand and firmer grain input costs.

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For procurement teams, the immediate read is that ethanol supply is comfortable in the near term. Building stocks and a soft export book argue for patience on spot purchases, while the elevated year-on-year price level argues against assuming a sustained drop. Buyers with exposure to industrial ethanol, beverage-grade alcohol or blending obligations can use the current lull to lock portions of forward demand, especially if corn prices climb through the summer growing season and lift production costs later in the year. Margin math at ethanol plants will hinge on the spread between corn input and ethanol plus distillers grains output, and any squeeze there could trim run rates and tighten availability.

The export slump also warrants watching. If overseas buyers return, the domestic cushion could thin quickly, reversing the current softness. Tracking weekly EIA production and stock figures alongside USDA grind data gives buyers an early signal on when the balance might shift.