- Urea prices in Q2 2026 moved unevenly, with early gains driven by Gulf supply disruption and later softness linked to improved China export expectations.
- Feedstock pressure came from LNG and ammonia supply issues, which affected nitrogen output in import-dependent markets.
- Demand was supported by Indian tender buying and seasonal crop needs, but weaker late-quarter agricultural and industrial offtake capped price strength.
Asia
In China, Urea prices were ~RMB 1.86/kg in April and about RMB 1.81/kg in May, showing a ~2.6% decrease. The decline was driven by high operating rates, weaker downstream buying, and fading agricultural demand, which reduced price support. By mid-June, plant operating rates were above 90%, while compound fertilizer and industrial buyers purchased only as needed, keeping the market under pressure.
In contrast, India showed a firmer trend, with Urea prices at ~INR 30.56/kg in April and ~INR 31.81/kg in the subsequent month, reflecting a approx. 4.1% increase. The rise was supported by lower LNG availability, which affected domestic output and increased reliance on imports. The country’s April urea production stood at 20.98 LMT, while imports reached 5.83 LMT, indicating that although local supply remained supported, it was still exposed to Gulf shipping and gas-side disruptions.
Europe
European urea stayed cost-sensitive in Q2’26 because nitrogen fertilizer production remained closely linked to natural gas. Gas accounted for 70-80% of EU nitrogen fertilizer production costs, keeping local producers exposed to energy volatility. Early-quarter supply disruption from the Middle East supported import-security concerns, but prices later softened as buyers delayed fresh purchases and spring application demand was largely covered. Limited regional self-sufficiency kept Europe vulnerable, but weaker global sentiment after improved Asian supply expectations reduced the strength of the market.
North America
North American urea was supported early in Q2 by spring application demand and global supply disruption, but domestic production was steadier than in Europe. Regional nitrogen producers maintained strong operating rates, with ammonia production supported by reliable plant performance and lower-cost gas access. U.S. corn planted area was estimated at 95.3 million acres in 2026, keeping nitrogen demand large. However, the area was down from the previous year, which capped fresh urea buying after the main spring application window.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, urea prices may remain mixed. Import risk and gas-linked costs can support prices, while weaker seasonal demand and higher Chinese output may limit fresh gains.