News and Articles

• Brazil’s national crop agency forecast coffee output at 66.2 million bags.
• Other market estimates point to an even larger crop, suggesting a possible record harvest.
• Global coffee supply is expected to move into surplus after several years of deficit.
• Brazil’s harvest runs from May through September, with wider price relief likely later in the year.
• Vietnam’s January and February coffee exports rose 14% year over year to 366,000 MT.
• Short-term robusta availability remains tight, limiting immediate downside.

Brazil is set for a much larger coffee crop, raising expectations that the global market could move into surplus after several years of tight supply. Forecasts for the 2026/27 season point to one of the largest harvests on record, with Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, estimating output at 66.2 million bags. Other market estimates are higher, but the broader signal is the same: Brazil is moving into a heavy production cycle.

Global coffee production is expected to exceed consumption, creating the first meaningful surplus in several years. This marks a shift from the supply deficits that pushed arabica futures to record highs in early 2025. The expected surplus should ease price pressure over time, though the impact will not be immediate.

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Brazil’s harvest normally runs from May through September. This means new-crop volumes are unlikely to reach destination markets in large quantities until late in the year. Until then, buyers may still face firm prices, especially where nearby supply remains tight.

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, has also added supply pressure. Coffee exports in January and February rose 14% year over year to 366,000 metric tons. Even so, robusta availability remained tight in nearby markets, keeping short-term price support in place.

For coffee procurement teams and roasters, the price outlook is becoming more favorable, but the move lower is likely to be gradual. Buyers with flexibility to extend purchasing into Q4 may benefit as Brazilian supply reaches the market. Those relying on short-term coverage may continue to face elevated landed costs through mid-year.