News and Articles

• US sugar supply is forecast at 14.268 million short tons.
• Sugar use is projected at 12.571 million short tons.
• Ending inventories are forecast at 1.697 million short tons.
• Mexico’s sugar production is raised to 5.377 million metric tons.
• US imports from Mexico are set near 1.346 million short tons.

The United States Department of Agriculture has raised its 2026/27 sugar supply forecast, supported by higher cane output and increased imports from Mexico. Total supply is now projected at 14.268 million short tons, raw value, an increase of 94,000 tons from the June estimate. The additions offset reductions in beginning stocks and expected beet sugar production.

Projected sugar use was raised by 56,000 short tons to 12.571 million tons. Deliveries for human consumption are forecast at 12.441 million tons after revisions to historical delivery data and current movement. Ending inventories are estimated at 1.697 million tons, 37,000 tons above the prior forecast.

The resulting stocks-to-use ratio remains 13.5 percent. This ratio is used in calculating import needs under the trade arrangements governing Mexican sugar shipments to the United States. It leaves the market supplied but does not create a large excess inventory for industrial users.

Mexico’s 2026/27 production forecast was raised by 94,000 metric tons to 5.377 million tons following favourable crop conditions. Total Mexican exports are projected at 1.292 million tons, with 1.152 million tons expected to move to the United States. In US raw-value terms, Mexican imports are set at about 1.346 million short tons.

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Food and beverage buyers should assess the report as a controlled supply increase rather than a broad surplus. A high share of the additional material depends on cross-border trade, import scheduling and compliance with the suspension agreements. Delays in customs clearance, certification or transport could tighten prompt availability even when annual supply remains adequate.

Purchasers of refined sugar also need to separate raw sugar availability from refinery capacity and regional distribution. National balance-sheet figures do not guarantee equal access in every consuming area. Freight from refineries, packaging availability and local warehouse stocks can alter delivered prices paid by bakeries, confectionery plants and beverage producers.

Contract strategies should include agreed delivery windows and provisions for alternative refinery locations. Buyers with high seasonal demand can stagger purchases across domestic cane sugar, beet sugar and imported material where specifications permit. The July forecast provides more supply than the previous estimate, but inventory remains tied to a defined policy ratio, keeping procurement discipline important.