News and Articles

• Global cotton mill use is forecast at 122 million bales.
• Global cotton production is forecast at 117.3 million bales.
• Consumption is set to exceed output by about 4.7 million bales.
• Ending stocks are projected to fall 6 percent to 71.2 million bales.
• China, India and Pakistan account for 75 percent of consumption growth.

Global cotton demand is forecast to exceed production during the 2026/27 marketing year, reducing inventories available to textile mills and fibre buyers. The US Department of Agriculture expects worldwide mill consumption to reach 122 million bales, up 2 percent from the preceding season and the second-highest level recorded in nine years. Production is forecast at 117.3 million bales, leaving consumption about 4.7 million bales above output.

The production estimate is 4 percent, or 4.65 million bales, below the 2025/26 level. India is the only large producing country expected to avoid a year-on-year reduction. This leaves buyers more exposed to crop performance in a smaller number of origins and reduces the protection offered by surplus inventories.

Consumption growth is concentrated in Asia. China, India and Pakistan are expected to account for three-quarters of the increase in world mill use. Consumption across the largest spinning countries is forecast to remain unchanged or rise, indicating that textile demand will continue drawing down raw cotton stocks even as production contracts.

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World ending inventories are forecast at 71.2 million bales, down 4.5 million bales, or 6 percent. Lower stocks leave mills with less room to absorb harvest delays, quality problems or transport disruption. Buyers that depend on hand-to-mouth purchasing could face stronger supplier resistance when negotiating prompt cargoes or higher-grade fibre.

Textile procurement teams can reduce exposure by matching purchase cover to production schedules rather than relying on spot availability. Contracts should define staple length, strength, contamination limits and origin substitution rules, since tight supply does not affect every grade equally. Mills using several fibre types can also review cotton-polyester blending economics as raw cotton values change.

The expected supply deficit does not guarantee a continuous price rise. Currency movements, apparel orders and speculative futures positions can still create short-term weakness. The physical balance, however, points to a smaller inventory buffer through the coming season. Mills entering negotiations with limited contracted volume face greater exposure to price changes and shipment delays than buyers that secure staggered coverage across several origins.